[Chris Alder]

No real change in todays models where after a brief improvement in conditions over easter cool and unsettled for a large part of Europe appears to the theme that will dominate the mid April spell especially with GFS & ECM favouring a strong mid Atlantic high.

[Dave K]

Not much point looking for fine details more than a couple of days ahead then, the unsettled picture means we can expect the model runs to jump around from one to the next, with much depending on the exact track of LPs in the N Atlantic and how much they sink south of east. Probably plenty of rain for the NW and less for those places where it is most needed and lots of it this month.

[Chris Alder]

Point taken BDG however this mornings ECM run is worth a mention for its awful look to next week with LP moving SE across the UK setting up a cold easterly that could lead to more April snow!

[Andy Mayhew]

According to GFS 12z we could see rain here in the Midlands every single day for the next 2 weeks ...... though some days only insubstantial amounts and I expect a downgrade on the heavier rain forecast in FI range .....

[Strider]

Dream winter charts rolling off all the models with a mid-Atlantic block looking sturdy and low pressure over central Europe. Temperatures look set to continue in the below average theme with possibly a substantial amount of much needed rainfall

[Chris Alder]

Too little too late really and disastrous if you happen to be going to Europe (like me) hoping to walk in the sunshine and take in the sights!

[Dave W]

Next week looking pretty dominated by low pressure across the UK now & quite deep at that.. maybe arund 975mb if you believe the 00Z ECM op.. could be quite wet and quite cool too with risk of hill snow in north

[BUTTERFLY]

Up to 6 am this morning (5th April), Cranwell in Lincolshire had 51.0 mm of rain (which I am sure is more than their normal rainfall for the whole of April even though no averages are given at http://www.met.readi...rugge/CURR.html, while Hertsmonceux in Sussex had had no rain at all; these are the largest and smallest amounts shown for all the dozens of stations spread through the British Isles shown.

There was also an interesting contrast between the month so far and March 2012 (see http://www.met.readi...rugge/PREV.html) at Aberdeen Dyce; so far April has averaged 3.2 deg. C., -3.9 deg. C. below the average of 7.1 deg. C., while in March it averaged 8.6 deg. C. (+3.3 deg. C. above the average of 5.3 deg. C.)

[Chris Alder]

is it me or is this mornings ECM 240h 500pha chart severely lacking in isobars? Looks very slack but in a way the 2 charts prior to that do tend to progress towards a very slack solution.

[Dave W]

Chris Alder, on 05 April 2012 - 10:08, said:

is it me or is this mornings ECM 240h 500pha chart severely lacking in isobars? Looks very slack but in a way the 2 charts prior to that do tend to progress towards a very slack solution.

Looks like it has loads to me?! http://www.meteociel...00/ECM1-240.GIF

[Dave W]

Have people stopped talking about the models?!

Looking unsettled and cool now though for the next ten days looking at the ECM 00Z run.. with a risk of further wintry weatheat times in the north to boot. Shouldnt be a great surprise I suppose after the extended dry and warm spell we had in March..

[Dave K]

Some much needed rain for the SE although too little and too late, although evaporative loss will be reduced with the cool conditions. I'd rather have a cool and wet April than have to be standing in a line with a bucket at a standpipe in August! That said rainfall amounts/frequency down here look enough to be annoying to those wanting guarenteed dry weather for activities, but not enough to be really useful.

[Dave W]

Quite a cold picture from the GFS 06Z op run from 13th-19th, winter looks like its has returned! Most of Uk below -5C at 850 in the period..

[Dave W]

Very wintry ECM looking chart for 17th April http://www.meteociel...12/ECM0-216.GIF

[Uskys]

Charts in the short term show snow interest - meso shows snow for midnight tomorrow for cumbrian and Welsh mountains.

[Chris Alder]

Horrid looking charts this evening for most of Europe probably persisting into the final third of the month. while we do need some rain I think of better way to get it!

[PJB]

Very unsettled ECMWF charts this morning across the UK over the next 10 days.

[Uskys]

Fax charts showing some decided cold air over the UK by sunday with a direct flow from the north pole and all of the UK bar kent in sub 528DAM.

[Strider]

ECM shows -8c uppers flooding in over the weekend too, GFS slightly less keen but a chilly damp weekend appears on the cards for much of the UK.