: Model Chat. Early To Mid Spring 2012. -

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Model Chat. Early To Mid Spring 2012.

#21 User is offline   Dave W 

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Posted 05 March 2012 - 19:46

http://www.meteociel...=0&type=1&ext=1

Remarkably good agreement on GFs 12Z ensembles atm.. almost dry throughout as well
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#22 User is offline   Peter H 

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Posted 05 March 2012 - 19:47

View PostHoward Kirby, on 05 March 2012 - 19:07, said:

The other concern apart from what Chris said is the continual lack of rainfall over areas that need it. Looks like another below average month on the cards over much of central and southern England.


Indeed.

It looks like some 'maybe rain' Weds and then I can't see any rain in prospect for the south for the foreseeable future...
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#23 Guest_Village_*

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Posted 06 March 2012 - 12:15

Not been particularly dry in southeast Essex. So fed up with the dull, drearyness of it so far this month. But with the models now in much agreement for a spell of much sunnier weather on the way things can only get better! :-)

#24 User is offline   Chris Alder 

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Posted 07 March 2012 - 11:04

Very dry and settled after todays rain clears, maybe a slight hiccup on Saturday with a decaying front and drizzle over more western regions other than GFS 06Z is very settled and warm right throughout next week and beyond with temps 5-7C above average at 14-17c. Infact some of the charts this morning are nearly worthy a 'if only it were July' comment.
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#25 User is offline   Dave W 

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Posted 08 March 2012 - 19:20

Have to say you dont see an ensemble run as dry as this very often! (this is for the London area)

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=302&y=172
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#26 User is offline   Dave W 

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Posted 10 March 2012 - 12:06

and on it goes.. http://www.meteociel...t=1&x=298&y=145 This for the Oxford area
GFS op has been a bt of an cold (slightly wetter) outlier for last 5-6 runs now
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#27 User is offline   Duncan Railton 

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Posted 10 March 2012 - 23:13

Its looking remarkably warm this coming week, I'm looking forward to it :) Very HP dominated and GFS keeps postponing the cooler conditions - and even then there isn't much rain on it...
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#28 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*

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Posted 11 March 2012 - 09:58

Looking cooler around the 16th for a few days.

#29 User is offline   Howard Kirby 

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Posted 11 March 2012 - 18:46

...and there could be a need for a TS outlook next weekend. :D
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#30 User is offline   Ian Williams 

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Posted 12 March 2012 - 23:31

18Z GFS Shows a slack low positioning itself over England for the weekend - looks like being a damp one for most of England and Wales. ECM 12Z in agreement. All models show a trough covering the whole UK so fresher conditions expected for a couple of days thereafter.
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#31 User is offline   Dave W 

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Posted 13 March 2012 - 12:57

Looks like a more unsettled period for UK coming up from the 17th-21st now.. cooler too
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#32 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 09:05

Well, if this is high pressure I don't want it. Maxed out at 10 degrees yesterday and today isn't looking any better

#33 User is offline   Chris Alder 

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 14:46

Quite possibly the best agreement I've ever seen from the London GFS ensembles. Looks like things will be warm and settled across Europe following this weekend slight disturbance.

Attached thumbnail(s)

  • Attached Image: MT8_London_ens.png

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#34 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 18:27

850hpa temps of 5 degrees are hardly warm Chris. :)

#35 User is offline   Dave K 

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 18:32

View PostChris Lloyd, on 14 March 2012 - 18:27, said:

850hpa temps of 5 degrees are hardly warm Chris. :)


Well warmth may well depend on insolation now that we near the equinox. That said this week's HP hasn't exactly delivered consistent clear skies for everyone.
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#36 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 18:36

View PostBig Dave, on 14 March 2012 - 18:32, said:

Well warmth may well depend on insolation now that we near the equinox. That said this week's HP hasn't exactly delivered consistent clear skies for everyone.


It's been dull here too. Sun came out at 3-30. Nice clear skies now.

I have just looked at GFS too and there is no sign of even positive 850 temps in the near future. Sticking around zero or below for a good while

This post has been edited by Chris Lloyd: 14 March 2012 - 18:36

#37 User is offline   Dave W 

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 18:54

View PostChris Lloyd, on 14 March 2012 - 18:36, said:

It's been dull here too. Sun came out at 3-30. Nice clear skies now.

I have just looked at GFS too and there is no sign of even positive 850 temps in the near future. Sticking around zero or below for a good while


Eh? They just dip below 0C for 2 days as far as i can see? http://www.meteociel...t=1&x=301&y=142
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#38 User is offline   Dave W 

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 18:57

Also the rather more unsettled period that was progged is now reduced to just 1 1/2 days as well..
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#39 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 19:08

View PostDave W, on 14 March 2012 - 18:54, said:

Eh? They just dip below 0C for 2 days as far as i can see? http://www.meteociel...t=1&x=301&y=142



I was looking at the GFS charts on Netweather Dave. They don't show anything warm at all.

I suppose the chart you posted is more reliable as it shows all the runs and the average of them. :)

#40 User is offline   Dave W 

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Posted 14 March 2012 - 19:15

They are the same charts Chris?! Show me the link though can you that you were looking at.. ?
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