[Ian Williams]

Maybe Chris meant the ops run as opposed to the ensembles

[Dave W]

That closely follows the mean though Ian?

[Ian Williams]

Dave W, on 14 March 2012 - 20:32, said:

That closely follows the mean though Ian?

LOL, Funny enough after posting that i checked and indeed it does Dave

[Lightning Hunter]

GFS is hinting at frosts most mornings down here next week. We had an unexpected frost this morning too.

The weekend showers look like being the last of any rain for a while, though we're about average atm here.

[Chris Alder]

This mornings 06Z GFS run really reduces RF amounts over England during the coming weekend, only 2-5/6mm forecast for many when a day or two ago we were looking at 15-20+mm. With excellent agreement of the emsembles showing high pressure re-assrting itself from Monday onwards its entirely possible that parts of England + Wales could see their last rainfall of the month this weekend which would lead to this March being incredibly dry.

Still with Easter just around the corner, I'm sure our wonderful climate will come up with Biblical amounts of rain over that 4day period.....

[Dave W]

Still pretty dry across the run on 06Z GFS .. eg) this for the south coast nr Brighton http://www.meteociel...t=1&x=303&y=180 despite the suggestion of a more showery period later on towards the weekend by models

[Dave W]

Next 2 weeks looking notably dry and settled esp in south http://www.meteociel...=0&type=1&ext=1

[Chris Alder]

Incredibly settled spell now on the cards and potentially alot sunnier than last week too. Hope this coming weekend pans out like GFS is currently showing, HP bang over the top of the Uk, and temps in the high teens possibly even breaking through the 20C barrier for the first time this year. Chilly nights could still be an issue especially in the usual prone areas so there could be some fairly large daily ranges in temperatures. No relief what so ever for areas currently affected by drought issues. All I can say is that I hope come July GFS, ECM etc are showing charts like they are this morning....

[Dave W]

Its alright for you you're not likely to be in the drought area Chris! LOL.

[Chris Alder]

Dave W, on 19 March 2012 - 10:12, said:

Its alright for you you're not likely to be in the drought area Chris! LOL.

Maybe not but I've still only had 86mm so far this year which is less than 50% of what would be expected on top of that a 200+mm deficit from last year. If the dry weather continues for another month I think those areas affected by current drought orders/restrictons will be expanded.

Everytime the models look like introducing some sort of unsettled conditions the door is firmly closed again in the next model run. As I've said before, as each day passes I'm becoming more and more worried about a more lenghty change to unsettled and unseasonabley cool in either late Spring or Summer.

[Dave W]

Quite a change in ECM op 00Z run today to a rather colder though still dry picture with H pressure to the north and a colder NEly flow across the S & E of the UK by HH120-HH192. Then a more unsettled NW ly flow by the end of the run.. rather different from the dry, quite mild, even warm weather progged recently by it..

[Dave W]

GFS 12Z ensembles have picked up on the notably cooler & rather more unsettled period now as we go into April.. could this be the long expected breakdown?

The 12Z ECM op is much more settled still though than its 00Z predecessor was and less chilly keeping high pressure much more dominant over the Uk .

[Chris Alder]

Notable about turn from GFS this morning with regards to potentially moving to a cooler, more unsettled scenario. GFS sunny, dry, warm by day and very settled right through the enitre run and with good support from its ensembles as well. ECM has a similar theme although its main run does turn more unsettled towards the very end.

[Dave W]

Atm GFS is 2-3C down on forecast v actual maxes it seems as well.. maybe due to dry ground

[Chris Alder]

Yes and given that factor will liekly increase with additional incoming solar heating I would expect to see a 20 or 21c by this time next week.

[Dave W]

I think we could well see 20-21C reached this w/e in fact..

[Dave W]

Models suggesting maxes of 15-17C are likely for much of the south for the rest of March.. more akin to mid May temps than late March

[Chris Alder]

Yes I can remember looking at the weatheronline 8day forecasts last Arpil and seeing temperatures 5-8C above average with clear skies forecast, its a complete duplication of that now, with off course temperatures lower due to being a month earlier.

Dave W, on 21 March 2012 - 22:57, said:

I think we could well see 20-21C reached this w/e in fact..

With slack winds as well as large portion of the country should join in on the very warm early spring weather.

[Andy Mayhew]

Looks like turning cool and wet just in time for Easter though!