[Dave W]

GFS FI has done this a lot though recently - when we get into the closer time frame it reverts to being dry and quite warm-or if wetter & cooler its just a brief 1-2 day affair .

[Dave W]

Big change in 06Z GFS ensembles from the 00Z ones.. from 30th March the mean 850s are now notably colder

[Andy Mayhew]

I know it's FI, but GFS 12z op run has rain across most parts of the country every day from the 3rd April - and even a possible White Easter on the cards! If it comes off it'll be quite a shock to the system, though the rain will be welcome for many. Till then though it's dry, dry, dry.

[Dave W]

GFS 06Z was dry as bone until 31st though

[Dave W]

ECM 12Z op still keen on a huge pattern change by early April with a very wintry look to the chart by the 2nd.. http://www.meteociel...12/ECM0-240.GIF

[Ed.]

Please...no breakdown over Easter? although this is now looking more likely to say the least and yes some wet-stuff is probably now more a necessity than an inconvenience for quite a few.

Certainly no heatwave on the horizon after next-week..

This post has been edited by Ed Shrops: 24 March 2012 - 10:53

[Dave K]

On the downside, maybe some poor weather over Easter weekend; on the upside maybe an atmospheric shake-up will get rid of this inversion that's still wrecking my TV reception

This post has been edited by Big Dave's Gusset: 24 March 2012 - 10:56

[Dave W]

Looking rather likely now isnt it .. however worth saying its been progged before now regularly and we eventually just get a few chillier/unsettled days before H pressure kicks back in again, in the end so .. ??

[Dave W]

Easter approaching, so as ever, winter returns! http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3483.png

[Dave K]

Dave W, on 24 March 2012 - 18:37, said:

Easter approaching, so as ever, winter returns! http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn3483.png

Well we are always told snow is more likely at Easter than Christmas

[Martyn Wells]

Are we not as near to the 546 dam line as the 528 in that image? Let's call it 536 over the middle of the country and little moisture. Fresh, perhaps but being past the vernal equinox means the sun is growing in strength. I don't see snow on that, someone tell me what I am missing?

[tivyboy]

Martyn Wells, on 24 March 2012 - 23:29, said:

Are we not as near to the 546 dam line as the 528 in that image? Let's call it 536 over the middle of the country and little moisture. Fresh, perhaps but being past the vernal equinox means the sun is growing in strength. I don't see snow on that, someone tell me what I am missing?

the link above has now updated to the 18z output the 12z chart showed the 528 dam line clear of the south coast, interestinly the 18z operational isnt atall as keen on the northerly and keeps high pressure incharge for longer aswell.

[Ian Williams]

Martyn Wells, on 24 March 2012 - 23:29, said:

Are we not as near to the 546 dam line as the 528 in that image? Let's call it 536 over the middle of the country and little moisture. Fresh, perhaps but being past the vernal equinox means the sun is growing in strength. I don't see snow on that, someone tell me what I am missing?

Martyn, the image is linked with the model run so the 528 dam has retreated from when Dave posted it, originally it had the 528 dam right down across the midlands

Sorry Tivyboy, Just realised you posted the same dohhhhhhhhh

This post has been edited by Ian Williams: 24 March 2012 - 23:57

[Peter H]

Not much activity here atm which is a pity because it's a interesting situation as bdg's monthly pressure averages attest to. I'm certainly not the best at analysis of model output but it seems to me that the outlook which was hinting at rather more unsettled weather in April now suggest the best hope for rain is that pressure falls a little from the 1030's to the low 1020's high 1010's...

Basically there is no sign of significant rain for those places that need it? No sign at all?

This post has been edited by Peter H: 25 March 2012 - 10:46

[Dave W]

Yes as i mentioned kept happening on the GFS runs we are now back to the progged rather colder wx being just a 'blip' now for a few days around the end of the month.. and staying pretty dry as well for most esp in south east where its needed

[Dave W]

GFS 06Z op & to an extent ensemble is wanting to extend the dry settled period into the first week of April now..

[Dave W]

A very cold outlook on the ECM 12Z op by next Monday http://www.meteociel...12/ECM0-192.GIF
-10C in the north at 850.. going to be quite a shock to those seeing 22C in Scotland recently, as temps are likely to struggle to reach much above 0C if this is correct

!

[Dave W]

Starting to look dry right into mid April now on the 00Z GFS runs in the south esp .. certainly the next 11 days are likely to be dry but again ECM 00Z op's a very different evolution bringing cold air south by HH96 then reverting to a more unsettled pattern after

[Chris Alder]

Only a few of the GFS runs have been as agreesive as ECM in digging much colder air down directly over the UK. I tend to favour GFS at the moment over what seems to be a more extreme ECM solution. Either way looks like staying dry. I've only recorded proper rain on 4 days so far this month.