[Dave W]

UKMO 00Z GM and BOM consensus seems to be like GFS to keep the coldest air off to the northeast down the N Sea but that sais it does seem like a chilly -though basically dry- NWly flow will become more established esp in the NE & east at times, down to -5C at 850hpa here and the far north seeing a lot colder air as well (-10C at 850 at times so a snow risk at times). The SW and southern coasts may fare best..

[Chris Alder]

Dave W, on 27 March 2012 - 08:35, said:

The SW and southern coasts may fare best..

I don't have a problem with that 13-14C in sheltered conditions will still feel pleasent with the ever increasing strength of the sun now.

[John Mason]

Quite substantial differences between the GFS and ECM at T+240, the former with a strong block running clean up the mid-Atlantic allowing a northerly to set in, the other with a major Atlantic low calling the shots. Have to say for many people the latter would be preferable now, given the rain needed....

Cheers - John

[PJB]

The Operational ECWMF was not a good representation of its Ensemble for days 8-10

[John Mason]

Ah, OK thanks for that Paul. Better dig out the woolies again!

Cheers - John

[Chris Alder]

I guess one thing to note is that this mornings GFS 06Z ops run was very much in the coldest few of the ensembles, especially over the Easter period. So it would appear there is still alot of uncertainty as to how much HP will retreat westwards in the second half of next week allowing a northerly to set in?

[Dave W]

Agreed.. i think itll be more a dryish NWly anyway..

[Chris Alder]

Dave W, on 27 March 2012 - 13:07, said:

Agreed.. i think itll be more a dryish NWly anyway..

Yes I think the eastern edge of the high will still be close to, or over the western portion of the UK. That would sent the coldest and most potent part of any northerly to our friends on the near continent.

[Dave W]

They are most welcome to it

[Chris Alder]

Still reasonable differences between GFS and ECM this morning with ECM flooding the UK with 850's of -5C of less by this time next week while GFS is nowhere near as potent as ECM with its northerly and actually allows a third but admitedly weaker building high pressure from the west.

Turning my eye to the central Med as I'm off to Rome in two weeks I don't like the developments later on in either model with one showing a unsettled troughing picture and the other showing a north easterly coming from central Russia!

[Rich T 2]

ECM 12z has given another run showing a pool of cool/cold Arctic air over the whole of the UK for next Tuesday into Wednesday, but again not much support from GFS 12z. In fact GFS suggesting a more mobile Atlantic flow later in the run. ECM seems the more consistent of the two at the moment.

[Dave W]

Looking chilly now into April even cold from nearly all runs esp on ECM 00z op with -10C over a large part of the Uk for a few days at 850 & increasingly agreement on it becoming more unsettled, poss very unsettled on some runs today .

[John Robert Mellor]

Although there had previously some sort of hint/ trend for a chillier flow over the bank holiday weekend, the GFS 00z introduced a very chilly and unsettled bank holiday weekend with low pressure being positioned over the North Sea. The solution looks a little unlikely to me, although I do buy into the cooler trend, I'm looking at a rather less developed area of low pressure being the the dominating factor.....but of course its a long way ahead and many changed to happen before then.

[PJB]

The ECMWF has a much sharper upper trough coming south relative to the GFS, Yesterday 12z UKMO GM also had a sharper trough. The trough in question is currently approaching Northern Greenland, and will subsequently be moving SSE. Its a data sparse area so expect further osciallations in model guidance. The 00Z GFS for the Easter Weekend was very cold and unsettled over much of the UK.

[Chris Alder]

Its starting to look like the Bank Holiday curse will be in full flow over Easter! Which ever scenario you look at it doens't look particularly pleasent.

I have to say the overall pattern change is very disappointing from my own perspective having got a week booked in Rome after easter, even down there a significant change is likely

[Dave W]

Yes does really seem some significant pattern changes ARE on the horizon now with a rather chilly unsettled period coming up as we go into & through April .. oh, how we will long for March again!

[Dave K]

For the next week here in the far SE, GFS 06z still only progs 1 - 2 mm rain which is of next to no use.

[Chris Alder]

Big Dave, on 29 March 2012 - 14:33, said:

For the next week here in the far SE, GFS 06z still only progs 1 - 2 mm rain which is of next to no use.

Mayeb but next weeks developments would no doubt lead into a far more unsettled spell though I suspect.

[Dave W]

Some chilly nights next week, in fact by Thurs 5th GFS 18Z op suggests local -7 to -8C isnt out of the question.. noteworthy as the daily record low -is -9C http://www.wetterzen.../Rtavn15617.png

[Ed.]

At the best of times it's pretty difficult to fathom those kinds of minimas during April - let alone after the record-breaking highs of late! Could well be a rather lateish influx for Scottish ski-ing afecionados..

Springtime sure does sometimes hold all the trump cards.

This post has been edited by Ed Shrops: 29 March 2012 - 22:57