[Bazmundo]

These moderate risks are getting nearly back-to-back so far this season, and definitely not good news for those already affected by the last system. In the wake of that low, a resurgent jet oncoming overnight tonight may set up a slight risk (though the SPC note only the NAM is very progressive with this atm) as it begins to destabilise the return of Gulf moisture with a broad and somewhat complex surface low pattern becoming sharper into Friday, eventually ejecting NEwd by 00z. Almost a repeat of the last system, the strong and deep wind profile (peaking up to 60kts at 850mb and over 100kts at 500mb) looks to generate fast moving isolated storms morphing into a QLCS and generates a moderate risk for Friday evening. Quote from the SPC 07z Day2 is possible long-lived significant tornadoes:

Quote

AIR MASS AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT AND IN WAKE OF MORNING CONVECTION
SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAVORABLY AMIDST STG LOW-LEVEL WAA/MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. INTENSE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH SFC DEW POINTS
INCREASING FROM MID 50S OVER OH TO MID 60S OVER PORTIONS MS/AL. IN
TANDEM WITH DIURNAL SFC HEATING...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT MLCAPE 250-500
J/KG OVER PORTIONS OH/INDIANA...TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE OVER
PORTIONS TN/KY...THEN DECREASING SOMEWHAT FARTHER S DUE TO
INFLUENCES OF STABLE LAYERS ALOFT. DESPITE UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
EXTENT/COVERAGE OF VARIOUS CONVECTIVE MODES THIS FAR OUT...EXPECT
WEAK CINH...BROADLY FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE...AND
RELATIVELY DENSE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO IMPINGE ON THAT
SETTING. AS SUCH...NUMEROUS SVR WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL FOR STG TORNADOES FROM EITHER SUPERCELLS OR QLCS-VORTEX
MECHANISMS. AT LEAST A FEW WIND EVENTS AOA 65 KT AND
LONG-TRACK/SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE...
SIGNIFICANT-SVR AREA IS BEING INTRODUCED...DRIVING CATEGORICAL MDT
RISK WHERE OVERLAID WITH RELATIVELY DENSE 45% TOTAL-SVR PROBABILITY.

[mrfizz]

Jeez. Having already suffered fatalities during Tuesday/Wednesday's outbreak this could turn out to be an awful start to the year.

Are early outbreaks such as this an indicator for a rough season or are they usually isolated events?

[Tony Gilbert]

A moderate risk is issued for later today for a large portion of the Eastern states. With exceptionally strong divergent upper flow this should make good virtual chasing practice for those wud be US chasers from the comfort of your armchair!....Lets hope that damage and disruction is minimal or better still over open ground away from towns!

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[Bazmundo]

Already a weather watch issued for severe thunderstorms underway for central MO toward the St Louis area, before sunrise. 08z RUC has some strong EHI (0-1km) values south of there for the morning hours.

[Chris Alder]

Tony Gilbert, on 02 March 2012 - 08:57, said:

Lets hope that damage and disruction is minimal or better still over open ground away from towns!

Yes fingers crossed on this front, however population densities within the Moderate risk is far higher than Oklahoma, Kansas etc.

On the interesting side of things TV and internet coverage should be quite. So I'm expecting a tense, but interesting evenings viewing.

[Bazmundo]

Cell just crossed St Louis, with a TVS on GR3, and golf ball size hail reported in the Florissant area - all that and only 7am local time.

[Cindy]

Now a high risk - hope folks in the risk area are keeping a vigilant eye on things.

[ChaserUK]

Certainly looks like a very nasty period coming up - will be watching this evening - hope people in the affected areas do too!

[Chris Alder]

Cindy, on 02 March 2012 - 13:26, said:

Now a high risk - hope folks in the risk area are keeping a vigilant eye on things.

Thought this would happen.

[Weather Monkey]

I was just watching Kholby Martins feed on chaser TV and they just had a tree fall on their car! I think they are OK now as they have reversed back a bit. Here is a screen shot just after they reversed back - it was quite a big tree. It scared me when it happened so they must be pretty shaken up.

EDIT: they are out of the car now standing and looking at the tree



EDIT 2: They have turned round now and are trying to go back but have debris all over the road that they are trying to move

This post has been edited by Weather Monkey: 02 March 2012 - 18:52

[ChaserUK]

Not looking good in Perkin, IN! wedge live now

This post has been edited by ChaserUK: 02 March 2012 - 20:13

[Stuart Robinson]

Have you got a stream that I can view Matt?

[ChaserUK]

http://www.wave3.com...260/wave-3-live

The reporter had the live feed from the chaser imbedded on screen Stu.

1/2 mile wide multi vortex reported Henryville, IN.

[ChaserUK]

oh crap the language being used is not good...tornado emergency declared

[Stuart Robinson]

Majour tornado debris ball can now be seen on radar from the Nabb Storm.

[Lorraine Evans]

Sounds like Henryville has been hit hard, no doubt there are going to be some very sad reports coming from there over the next few hours.

[Stuart Robinson]

Bedford is about to be hit - I am seeing over 130 Knots of gate to gate surface shear over the town.

[ChaserUK]

West Point cell looks like being a monster!

[ChaserUK]

oh dear 4 confirmed dead in IN so far - sad news.