[tk421]

Hi all,
Firstly, forgive me if this is completely wrong. I've just snapped this photo out the back window. If this is Altocumulus Floccus, could there possibly be a chance of a storm tomorrow. There is talk of the wet stuff arriving.

Aid

[AndrewJM]

The chance of thunder is still fairly remote in March although it is not unheard of. I vaguely remember a short but very strong storm on March 1st in either 1980 or 1981. Not sure what the precise synoptics are tomorrow but there is no mention of storms in any of the forecasts for inland areas.

[Dave W]

Theres the risk of some instability through the Irish Sea into the western UK by afternoon as a trough moves through .. some showers likely, possibly heavy, just possibly thundery .. but those clouds were not tied up with that development

[Tony Gilbert]

Cold front currently looks rather weak and we might need to make a concession regarding the basic models reliablity regarding the general climate across the UK at this time of year. SST are at thir lowest ATM and the GFS is trying to develop CAPE over the Irish Sea? Whilst the CAPE may develop at mid levels it will nevertheless be rapidly erroded from the lowest layer. So not sure if this is reading true! The most likely chance for a micro climate scenario to induce some basic level of CAPE might be IMO over land where some early season insolation could take place during the afternoon. Primarily targets look like west Ireland, Wales and possibly Somerset. Though don't hold your breath on this one!

This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 02 March 2012 - 19:27

[Andy Mayhew]

It's been interesting that the skies here these past three evenings have looked very 'thundery' - typical of a mid summer plume. But of course instability occurs any time of the year. Hopefully we'l see the same later in the year when surface temps are a little higher!

[Tony Gilbert]

Yes always some possibility for convection even in the most unlikely month. Though conversely TBH the common term; 'Weather is the same everywhere across the globe'! is probably not that accurate. A better description would be to say that weather variations could occur anywhere across the globe BUT in reality they mostly don't and in fact certain regions are most definitely prone to specific types of weather extremes on a regular basis due to topographic or climate variations! In this instance this may or may not include the UK

This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 02 March 2012 - 23:00