Sign In »
Register Now!
Help
ie, GFS for midday tomorrow:
Rain / Snow - 4th March - Chat Thread
#1
- Group: Executive
- Posts: 23765
- Joined: 15-October 02
- LocationEvesham, Worcs
Posted 03 March 2012 - 11:56
Looks like it could be quite a wet day in some parched parts of the south tomorrow, with a risk of some sleet or snow over higher ground as well, especially on the back edge.
ie, GFS for midday tomorrow:
ie, GFS for midday tomorrow:
#2
- Group: Members
- Posts: 1888
- Joined: 10-September 11
- LocationNr Newport,Shrops.
Posted 03 March 2012 - 12:02
More potential for some of the white-stuff even at times to lower levels.Indeed, could be pretty icy for some come Monday am.
This post has been edited by Ed Shrops: 03 March 2012 - 12:01
#3
Posted 03 March 2012 - 12:47
I noticed that BBC have played down the snow risk in their latter forecast, more so for Gloucestershire and surrounding areas. Earlier it was suggesting a few hours of snowfall for us but now literally just on the back edge, possibly Cotswold's. Net Weather have 'torrential' snow forecast for us!
#4
- Group: Executive
- Posts: 5356
- Joined: 17-October 03
- LocationBrighton
Posted 03 March 2012 - 12:53
Possibly but 06Z NAE is much less keen on snow initially in the west ad central parts tomorrow pm
#5 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*
Posted 03 March 2012 - 12:58
A sure sign of our distinct lack of snow. Andy, in snow starved Evesham starting a thread about the stuff 
#6
Posted 03 March 2012 - 13:00
GFS has part of the South & Midlands under 10cm of precip, reflected somewhat on the latest snow-forecast map also. http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk
#7
- Group: Executive
- Posts: 23765
- Joined: 15-October 02
- LocationEvesham, Worcs
Posted 03 March 2012 - 13:05
Chris Lloyd, on 03 March 2012 - 12:58, said:
A sure sign of our distinct lack of snow. Andy, in snow starved Evesham starting a thread about the stuff
Actually, it's the prospect of a rare wet day with some decent rainfall that has me most excited
Still deliberating on whether to pop up the Malverns tomorrow to experience it in the raw!
#8 Guest_Village_*
Posted 03 March 2012 - 13:06
I for once cant make my mind up on this one. Its so difficult to predict where or if snow will fall at this time of year under these conditions.
The only thing I would say is that the time of day will become more important with this situation. The longer after sunset that moderate to heavy precip is present then the more chance of snow IMO. Therefore the question of snow will become a timing issue ....ie, if the system takes longer to clear away to the east then snow becomes more likely becuase the heavier precipitation will be in place at the coldest time of day in the early hours and into the commute.
Of course this is not negating the usual altitude and local surface wind imput into the question.
The only thing I would say is that the time of day will become more important with this situation. The longer after sunset that moderate to heavy precip is present then the more chance of snow IMO. Therefore the question of snow will become a timing issue ....ie, if the system takes longer to clear away to the east then snow becomes more likely becuase the heavier precipitation will be in place at the coldest time of day in the early hours and into the commute.
Of course this is not negating the usual altitude and local surface wind imput into the question.
#9
Posted 03 March 2012 - 14:29
Interestingly, on a historical perspective, 42 years ago, over 30cm of snow fell across parts of eastern England on 4th March 1970. However, was a different set-up with a develping wave running southwards down an intense baroclinic zone.
Was a convective element to this snow, especially near the developing point of occlusion, where I saw snow flakes 5 inches (12 to 13cm) across. I was sent outside with a sheet of black paper and a ruler to measure them by my teacher, because we could not believe what we were seeing.
N.
Was a convective element to this snow, especially near the developing point of occlusion, where I saw snow flakes 5 inches (12 to 13cm) across. I was sent outside with a sheet of black paper and a ruler to measure them by my teacher, because we could not believe what we were seeing.
N.
#10
- Group: Members
- Posts: 1888
- Joined: 10-September 11
- LocationNr Newport,Shrops.
Posted 03 March 2012 - 14:39
Well, we're entering the silly season when anything can happen 
and usually does..feels pleasant enough out in the sunshine today, inbetween a few scattered blustery showers.
Nigel, a fraction of that amount would of course cause us a few headaches, must be said though...them were the days lol and that sure was some dumping!
and usually does..feels pleasant enough out in the sunshine today, inbetween a few scattered blustery showers.Nigel, a fraction of that amount would of course cause us a few headaches, must be said though...them were the days lol and that sure was some dumping!
#11 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*
Posted 03 March 2012 - 15:32
Andy Mayhew, on 03 March 2012 - 13:05, said:
Still deliberating on whether to pop up the Malverns tomorrow to experience it in the raw!
Let's hope you actually leave your clothes on
#12 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*
Posted 03 March 2012 - 15:36
I remember the 7th March a few years ago (sister's engagement party) - some time around 1989 / 1990. Venue had to be changed due to there being 7 or so inches of snow on the ground. This fell in the space of 2 or 3 hours in the evening.
I think if this NW wind gets going tomorrow on the flank anyone could get snow I suppose.
At the very least the SE need the rain.
I think if this NW wind gets going tomorrow on the flank anyone could get snow I suppose.
At the very least the SE need the rain.
#13 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*
Posted 03 March 2012 - 15:40
JOKE_SNOW, on 03 March 2012 - 13:00, said:
GFS has part of the South & Midlands under 10cm of precip, reflected somewhat on the latest snow-forecast map also. http://www.snow-fore...maps/dynamic/uk
That's a nice site - only has the snow down to 400m at best though. Maybe in heavier precip it may bring the snow down to lower levels. Having said that (hence the edit) just had a peek at the 850 to 1000 hpa thickness values and sub 130 DAM air is firmly in place across the midlands by midday tomorrow.
This post has been edited by Chris Lloyd: 03 March 2012 - 15:44
#14
Posted 03 March 2012 - 15:47
I think the only places it will snow are higher parts of the midlands like daventry and maybe luton airport.
#15
- Group: Executive
- Posts: 23765
- Joined: 15-October 02
- LocationEvesham, Worcs
Posted 03 March 2012 - 16:12
Chris Lloyd, on 03 March 2012 - 15:36, said:
At the very least the SE need the rain.
We need the rain ! And according to 12z NAE over the next 48 hours we could end up with .................... 7mm
Hardly worth getting out of bed for.GFS has 15mm, but always overdoes the amounts.
I'm not exepcting any of that to be in the least bit icy in these parts.
Somehow I've a feeling it's all going to end up a damp squib. And not a washout!
#16
- Group: Frouks
- Posts: 8128
- Joined: 03-December 03
- LocationWorcester
Posted 03 March 2012 - 21:54
Yep I think this is one for the hope casters. Rain, yes. Sleety at the very most around west midlands in highest areas. Mind you, freezing level of 400m means you might get lucky on the beacon Andy...
#17
- Group: Forum Managers
- Posts: 26337
- Joined: 22-November 02
- LocationBrecon Beacons, 330m ASL
Posted 03 March 2012 - 22:10
Martyn Wells, on 03 March 2012 - 21:54, said:
Yep I think this is one for the hope casters. Rain, yes. Sleety at the very most around west midlands in highest areas. Mind you, freezing level of 400m means you might get lucky on the beacon Andy...
I've just got back and had a quick glance at the charts... it seems its still very much finely balanced and still has the possibility of suprising a few..... I'm not hoping for anymore than to see pen-y-fan/carmarthen fans clothed in white again Martyn ... unless we do get lucky- and of course... I'll be happily swamping the reports board if it does .
#18
Posted 03 March 2012 - 22:47
Ed Shrops, on 03 March 2012 - 14:39, said:
Well, we're entering the silly season when anything can happen and usually does..feels pleasant enough out in the sunshine today, inbetween a few scattered blustery showers.
Nigel, a fraction of that amount would of course cause us a few headaches, must be said though...them were the days lol and that sure was some dumping!
and usually does..feels pleasant enough out in the sunshine today, inbetween a few scattered blustery showers.Nigel, a fraction of that amount would of course cause us a few headaches, must be said though...them were the days lol and that sure was some dumping!
Despite this depth of snow falling in less than a day, life seemed to go on as normal. We got home from school that night, and we all got to school the following day. The only thing that suffered were my tootsies, because the snow was deeper than my wellies were tall.
N.
#19
- Group: Members
- Posts: 1888
- Joined: 10-September 11
- LocationNr Newport,Shrops.
Posted 03 March 2012 - 23:02
Elf'n'safety didn't register back then either, playing conkers in the confines of ones playground was the norm.
Imo only the highest=peaks are likely to see anything remotely slushy...the rest, wet, wet, wet! and certainly a raw feel.We shall see.
Imo only the highest=peaks are likely to see anything remotely slushy...the rest, wet, wet, wet! and certainly a raw feel.We shall see.
#20
- Group: Forum Managers
- Posts: 26337
- Joined: 22-November 02
- LocationBrecon Beacons, 330m ASL
Posted 03 March 2012 - 23:18
Its still in the balance... meso 18z shows less snow, virtually none for wales, yet the bbc 22:57 forecast hinted at some snow for east anglia and the east midlands ... and in the east last into monday rush hour..... meso isn't having any of that.
the cold air entrained in this system must be hard to pinpoint and thus the precipitation type and amount is very difficult for forecast.
the cold air entrained in this system must be hard to pinpoint and thus the precipitation type and amount is very difficult for forecast.
