[Ed.]

Aye, i suspect a bit of a nightmare to forecast and even as the precip pushes further east into any colder air aloft - elevation is going to be key.

Even following a prolonged cold/v.cold spell, snowfall always throws up lots of uncertainties.Take a peek at current overnight temps and well, it sure will need a massive sea change...for the deeper, crispier'n'evener stuff

[stormbell]

Rainfall totals across Norfolk/Suffolk for Sunday/Monday as predicted by various models the last couple of days (only eye-balled these)....

Saturday:
00z GFS 20-32mm
00z CMS 21-28mm
00z NAE 20-31mm
00z HIRLAM 17-24mm
00z YRNO 18-30mm
00z ECM ENS (Norwich) 18mm max 32mm
12z GFS 12-23mm
12z NAE 20-65mm
12z CMC 18-38mm
12z HIRLAM 9-13mm
12z YRNO 12-30mm
Sunday:
00z NAE 26-67mm
00z GFS 15-25mm
00z CMC 23-41mm
00z YNNO 15-25mm
00z HIRLAM 10-17mm
00z ECM ENS (Norwich) 19mm max 40
00z Meteoblue (Norwich) 9mm

(some of those figures from 00z Saturday may actually be from the 6z runs yesterday, I can't remember what I wrote down, ha)...

This post has been edited by stormbell: 04 March 2012 - 08:30

[Halo]

It's snowing here atm.

[Steve Jones]

We've got sleet here in Halesowen @ 09:05.

EDIT : 09:15 it's wet snow now.

This post has been edited by Steve Jones: 04 March 2012 - 09:14

[Martyn Wells]

Sleet and wet snow in Worcester

[Nigel Bolton]

One thing perhaps pointing out, is the risk of one of those rarities for the southeast, and something that has not hapened for a good long while, a northerly gale.

N.

[Dave W]

Seems unlikely to develop that much to now to me Nigel?

However theres already been 20mm in areas around S Dorset, Somerset and Dartmoor..

[Uskys]

15mm of precipitation here, snow level at 1,500'-1,800'.

[Dave W]

Dave W, on 04 March 2012 - 10:04, said:

Seems unlikely to develop that much to now to me Nigel?

However theres already been 20mm in areas around S Dorset, Somerset and Dartmoor..

Actually NAE 06Z does have a 40kt NNWly wind barb just off the south coast south of west Sussex at 15Z today..

[smartie]

Accumulated snow at 00Z 5 March from GFS 09-3km WRF init 12Z 3 March.
Physics is not 'tuned' for snow.

D

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[Chris Alder]

17.6mm already today, that's now double the wettest day so far this year.

[Mark D]

Mixture of heavy rain and snow here!

[Rob B]

Village, on 04 March 2012 - 10:15, said:

Just to be clear for some newer members' thats 20mm of rain otherwise it would be 2CM if it were snow, right Dave?

Dave must have missed your post Vill.

20mm of rain would normally give you around 20cm of snow but this can vary quite widely depending on temperature.

NOAA have published this conversion table.
http://www.ncdc.noaa...newsnowfall.pdf

If you really want to go into detail have a look at this
http://sanders.math....tio/roebber.pdf

[Nigel Bolton]

Dave W, on 04 March 2012 - 11:04, said:

Actually NAE 06Z does have a 40kt NNWly wind barb just off the south coast south of west Sussex at 15Z today..

Indeed. Although the low may not develop much further, it may stall close to southeast England, whilst pressure rises to its west, tightening the gradient. A mixture of sleet or wet snow, accompanied by a damp gale will feel very unpleasant indeed.

As an asside, although the winds seem to be easing here, some of the gusts have been strong enough to bring down small dead wood.

N.

[Flatlander]

Just moderate rain here - 8mm so far. Temp a chilly 3C. No sign of snow yet.

We need some rain badly, so a really wet day isn't a bad thing. Shame it had to be at the weekend.

Edit: Sleet just starting now.

[Andy Mayhew]

As expected, just rain here, and not particularly heavy either.

[skanky]

Mainly rain here, though there was some embedded sleety stuff at one point.

[Lightning Hunter]

The biggest snowflakes I've ever seen just now in Southampton! Easily 2-3 inches, possibly more, splatting on the windows and floating across the sky like feathers - very wierd, and mixed in with heavy rain.