: NA May 2012 Weather Discussion -

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NA May 2012 Weather Discussion

#1 User is offline   Cindy 

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Posted 06 March 2012 - 13:55

Conrad
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Today 6th March 2012 has been exceptionally cold in Montreal for so late in the season. It was down at -16C/ 3.2F at 9 am this morning and it reached a high of -11C/12.2F at 4 pm this afternoon but it is now getting colder again at 10 pm. The brisk NW breeze has given us wind chill factors down near -28C/-18.4F during periods when the wind was stronger.It has been sunny all day however. This cold air seems to have come to us from the Quebec interior about 600 miles north of here.The Quebec interior is often one of the coldest part of Canada particularly in the later part of the winter. This often leads to a Canadian version of the Scandinavian High centred over central - northern Quebec.

Cindy: This should be transferred to a thread for NA March 2012, but there doesn't yet seem to be a thread for March.
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#2 User is offline   brshort716 

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Posted 07 March 2012 - 01:53

The beginning of March has been chilly and snowy in northern Minnesota. We've received 4" (~11cm) of snow since the 1st and temperatures were able to drop to -13˚F two nights ago thanks to the fresh, cold snow and calm, clear conditions. This is all going to change.

A huge ridge of high pressure will set up over the eastern U.S., pushing the jet stream far north into Canada, bringing near record warmth to much of the U.S. east of the Rockies. That translates to highs in the upper 40s to low 50s here (8-11˚C), which is about 20˚F (11˚C) above average.

Hydrological outlooks have been released by the weather service as we are expected to see all of our snow melt in a short time period, possibly coupled with several rain-laden storm systems. A month ago, the chances for even moderate flooding were nil and the worry was a bad spring fire season. Now the chances for minor to moderate flooding are likely... though the lesser snow pack this year compared to the past 3 years and the dry autumn in 2011 have meant that major flooding is pretty much out of the question... unless we get a major onslaught of rain.

The top foot of soil is fairly dry due to the dry weather last fall, but below that it is damp (though not saturated), and the soil is frozen to a depth of 30-40", deeper than average owing to scant snow cover early to mid winter... though the warmer conditions kept it from getting to extreme levels. Still, this will reduce the ability of the soil to absorb the moisture as the ground will take longer to thaw even in the unseasonable warmth.

The analogs for the next 2 weeks all appear to be from very warm years or from warm periods within otherwise seasonable Marches in the past. 1953 still features prominently, and has all winter long (1952/53)... and fits nicely with the overall pattern in the lower 48, along with the severe cold/heavy snow in Alaska. Now if we can have a summer like 1953 here in northern Minnesota, I will be very happy. Summer 1953 saw seasonable temperatures with nothing unusually cool or hot... and slightly above normal precipitation that fell in moderate bouts that were perfectly spaced... about once or twice a week. Combined with a forward spring, it would be a boon to farmers, gardeners, and nature in general.
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#3 User is offline   Conrad 

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Posted 07 March 2012 - 05:17

Today Tuesday March 6th has continued cold in Montreal with morning temperatures down at -15C/5F and it warmed up to -5C/23F this afternoon and has remained there until now which is just before midnight. It has been clear or almost clear today but it has been clouding up this evening and light snow is expected to begin shortly after midnight as a warm front approaches from the SW. A trough over the west central US which is deepest over Colorado is going to bring record or near record warmth for the next two days with forecast highs at 10C/50F. The recent cold spell has given us about 18 inches of standing snow with the surface of the Saint Lawrence river being partly frozen with big flat ice rafts floating by. However the approaching surge of very mild SW winds will probably melt all of this.
One aspect of this winter illustrates something: My youngest daughter lives right next to lake Ontario about 60 miles east of Toronto. She tells me that this is the first winter in her memory when lake Ontario has not frozen at all, and that all through the winter the lake has looked exactly like it does in the summer.Maybe an indicator of progressive global warming? The low and trough that brought so many tornadoes to the southern US last week brought very violent winds to eastern Ontario with gusts over100 kms/hour/63 mph and this blew shingles off of my daughters house because she is very exposed being next to the lake. This next low looks like another Colorado low because it is expected to get very windy here in the next couple of days. Let's hope it doesn't have too much potential for producing tornadoes like last week.
Meanwhile while it warms up here, a new surge of cold air from the north is now invading western Canada and the NW US.
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#4 User is offline   ldavidcooke 

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Posted 07 March 2012 - 15:30

Hey All,

The current 72 hr looks to suggest a sinilar pattern as last week. Round about Sunday the 11th a very strong High should arrive onshore over the NW region. It looks to be further north of the last three ridges suggesting a more stagnat or blocking condition in the southern region. With the current Southern Jet Stream being highly zonal I suspect a high degree of shear to start out. Looking back across the Equatorial N. Pacific a combination of warming SSTs and continued weakening of the La Nina conditions should cause the Southern Jet Stream to begin to waunder a bit. It is possible we could end up with a strong moist trough forming in the GoM and push up into the Ohio Valley by Thur. the 15th.

I'm curious if this observation is simply an isolated imagining or if anyone else sees a similar pattern developing?
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#5 User is offline   ldavidcooke 

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Posted 09 March 2012 - 16:59

Hey All,

Looks like I missed the cutoff lows location by about 300 miles. I figured the surface feature to be squarely south of Huston, TX instead it looks to be setting up over Guada la Jara, Mexico with the upper level (@+30cm/s^2, thank you very much) over New Mexico. Though the cutoff High influence remains in the central US the convection pulse setting up over TX looks to be similar to the 2011 massive tornado outbreak only a little further South. So far no Sever Warnings on NOAAs SPC.

As to the Southern Jet Stream it has taken a massive dip along the Antillies and looks to be tickling the northern end of the Hawaiian chain at the other extreme, in this roughly, half of the Northern Hemisphere. (Northern, not Southern end of the Isles, I had inverted my measure from the Tropic of Cancer, sorry...)
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#6 User is offline   Conrad 

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Posted 16 March 2012 - 03:34

Our weather has been a bit bizarre recently, after a couple of days with highs at 12C/53.6F it then turned overcast and drizzly with smog trapped under an inversion. When I went out at about 10 am on Wednesday morning it was dark and grey and drizzly but then I noticed big wet snowflakes in amongst the drizzle and then it gradually started to snow seriously for several hours covering grassy surfaces with about an inch of new snow, all of our winter snow has now melted.

Today Thursday has been fair with an afternoon high of 4C/39.2F but now something strange is happening, thundershowers are breaking out this evening over southern Quebec and southern Ontario. The sferics are showing up very clearly and there are lots of red patches inside the rain areas. Exactly why this is happening is not clear to me. We don't normally get thundershowers this early in the spring.With a bit of luck Montreal will get an overnight thundershower.
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#7 User is offline   Conrad 

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Posted 18 March 2012 - 02:37

The weather here in Montreal continues to be unusual. Radiation fog is very rare in these parts but at about 2 am this morning I noted that I couldn't see across the river and quite dense fog continued up until 1 pm this afternoon when it turned into partly cloudy with a maximum of 11C/51.8F. This is not spectacularly warm but it was the first Saturday of the year that wasn't cold. When I went downtown I thought that something special must be happening because there were thousands of people walking in both directions along both sides of Ste Catherine Street, the main East West highway through central Montreal. There was nothing special going on, it was simply that people felt liberated from the winter cold and they just wanted to stroll. Most were not even doing any shopping. Tomorrow Sunday however will attract a big crowd to Sainte Catherine's Street. It will be the annual Saint Patrick's Day parade in Montreal. This is a completely loony event that attracts everybody who is of Irish descent, partly Irish descent, and non Irish descent who become Irish wannabes for one day. I would say that this parade marks the official start of spring in Montreal. Tomorrow's high is forecast to be 20C/68F which must be getting close to a record for the date, later in the week it will get even warmer and will probably break records.
Anyway, Spring is one of the best seasons of the year here. July and August are often too hot and humid but the Spring is nice.
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#8 User is offline   HSEA2 

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Posted 18 March 2012 - 23:50

Outstanding warmth in much of the plains states in US and Canada...5th straight 80f+ day in Chicago, and 27c in Winnipeg, beating the month record by 4c and date record by 15c. (average march daytime high in winnipeg is -1c)

http://blog.chicagow...at-goes-on.html
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#9 User is offline   ldavidcooke 

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Posted 19 March 2012 - 16:46

Hey All,

If you take a look at the 250mb upper level winds over NA the Low to the West stretches from roughly 55-60 deg. N down to roughly 25 deg. N While the High forming in the East shows upper level winds stretching from below 20 deg. N to over 60 deg. N.

Now that is quite an indication of Equatorial warmth moving North displacing Arctic cooling and sending it South... At least it suggests a good time to reseed the lawn and get the "cold box" cover/lids for the raised beds put into storage here at 35N.
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#10 User is offline   Conrad 

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Posted 20 March 2012 - 03:12

This part of Canada in SW Quebec has also been experiencing record warmth for the date. Yesterday Sunday it reached 23C/73.4F during the afternoon when the Saint Patrick's Day parade was proceeding under full steam. Today Monday it only reached 20C/68F. I believe that it has become slightly cooler because of a change of wind direction from SW to NNE , as is common at this time of year, cooler air from 'La Mer de Champlain' (The Champlain Sea AKA the Gulf of Saint Lawrence) comes funneling up the Saint Lawrence valley until it reaches the eastern part of Lake Ontario.

Anyway for the past two days I have been going about in shirtsleeves, after the winter it feels glorious and everybody is enjoying it. However colder air has returned to western Canada and there was snow this morning in Vancouver. There is a strong cold front extending from NW Manitoba all the way down to southern Texas and northern Mexico. There have been and there are probably ongoing tornadoes in Oklahoma and Texas and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow east of the front over eastern Manitoba and NW Ontario. Meanwhile we have a couple more days of this gorgeous weather before the front arrives. I wouldn't be at all surprised if ahead of the front there will be thunderstorms over southern Ontario and southern Quebec later in the week.
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#11 User is offline   Dave K 

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Posted 02 April 2012 - 11:32

I checked these on the synop returns and it's no April Fool thing...


All-time March warmth records in Wyoming, NebraskaMost of Wyoming and much of Nebraska set or tied their record for all-time warmest March temperatures yesterday, no fooling. A strong ridge of high pressure that generated a strong flow of warm air from the southwest was responsible. Some of the records included:

Omaha, NE: 91°F
Lincoln, NE: 91°F
Casper, WY: 77°F
Lander, WY: 76°F
Worland, WY: 81°F
Chadron, WY: 83°F
Sidney, WY: 83°F

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#12 User is offline   Conrad 

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Posted 12 April 2012 - 02:31

Today was the first time this year that I have seen convective cumulus with icy anvils. Montreal is in a fairly weak NEly flow as we are situated between a large High centred over southern Hudsons Bay and an Atlantic Low with its centre just south of Nova Scotia in the Canadian Maritimes.

When I went out this afternoon I could see strong fallstreaks of rain and soft hail (graupel) approaching very slowly from the ENE. It gave us a short downpour of soft hail mixed with rain for about 5 minutes before it passed over.

The high this afternoon was 11C/ 51.8F, it is expected to fall to about 2C/35.6F overnight.

At least this is normal April weather in these parts.

(Cindy, I believe that this should be in a thread titled 'NA April 2012 weather discussion' but I cannot find a thread with that title)
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#13 User is offline   Conrad 

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 03:14

It is now shortly after 11pm here in Montreal Quebec. A large low is presently centred just off - shore of the Chesapeake Bay area and is moving slowly northwards and is expected to be over Quebec by Monday evening. It is already getting very windy outside approaching 30 mph from the NE and the temperature is just a notch above 4C/39.2F, this storm will be giving lots of rain and in some areas heavy snow is expected and it's possible that even Toronto will have some wet snow in the backwash of this storm. It is also possible here in Montreal too but less likely. I would imagine that the worse impact of this system will be in the NE US tomorrow, probably with lots of flight cancellations.

Here is the current weather warning in force in southern Quebec tonight.


Warnings

Metro Montréal - Laval
8:20 PM EDT Sunday 22 April 2012
Rainfall warning for
Metro Montréal - Laval continued

Up to 40 mm of rain is expected in these regions beginning tonight.

A low pressure system coming from the gulf of the Mexico will reach Southern Quebec Monday evening. Precipitations will begin to fall as snow in most regions and quickly change to rain over Southern Quebec Monday morning. Significant rainfall amounts are expected in several parts of southern, Central and Eastern Quebec. Meanwhile, the regions of Central Quebec and the Gaspé Peninsula will see a mix of snow and ice pellets Monday morning. Farther north, in a line between Abitibi and Manicouagan, winter will return. Significant snowfall amounts are expected in these areas beginning Monday evening.

Additionally, a strong easterly flow associated with the approach of this low pressure system will give high winds in the region of Quebec City Monday morning and over the north shore of the Gaspé Peninsula Monday evening.

Please refer to regional public forecasts for details pertaining to each region.
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#14 User is offline   Dave K 

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 10:14

Floods, snow and cold for the north-eastern USA in prospect. A potentially damaging late frost in Ohio.

http://www.wundergro...ml?entrynum=207

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#15 User is offline   Chris Alder 

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 12:12

While the east of the US is in winter mode the opposite can be said for the west.

According to the daily stats on Accuweather Death Valley recorded 113f (45C) yesterday from what I can see this is higher the previous April record of 111f (44C) which is listed on Wiki?

Would be interesting to see if there are any confirmations of these actuals & records?
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#16 User is offline   Dave K 

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 12:54

View PostChris Alder, on 23 April 2012 - 12:12, said:

While the east of the US is in winter mode the opposite can be said for the west.

According to the daily stats on Accuweather Death Valley recorded 113f (45C) yesterday from what I can see this is higher the previous April record of 111f (44C) which is listed on Wiki?

Would be interesting to see if there are any confirmations of these actuals & records?


Furnace Creek recorded 110 °F on the 21st so it seems feasible. Should get confirmation later today.

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#17 User is offline   ldavidcooke 

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 19:24

Hey All,

Gotta 'ove that N. Jet, between whip-sawing over the US and developing into a parallel split over Eurasia, (not a near merger of N&S NH Jets; but three separate bands), it certainly looks like Summer in Winter followed a week later by Winter in Spring. Well if nothing else it should be a better year for Maple Syrup, though they may have to render it a bit longer then normal...
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#18 User is offline   Dave K 

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Posted 23 April 2012 - 20:37

View PostChris Alder, on 23 April 2012 - 12:12, said:

While the east of the US is in winter mode the opposite can be said for the west.

According to the daily stats on Accuweather Death Valley recorded 113f (45C) yesterday from what I can see this is higher the previous April record of 111f (44C) which is listed on Wiki?

Would be interesting to see if there are any confirmations of these actuals & records?



View PostBig Dave, on 23 April 2012 - 12:54, said:


Furnace Creek recorded 110 °F on the 21st so it seems feasible. Should get confirmation later today.


Confirmed Furnace Creek hit 113 °F on the 22nd. See http://www.nps.gov/d...e&pageid=439529

and the record high for April was previously 112 °F - see http://www.nps.gov/d...d%20Climate.pdf

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#19 User is offline   ldavidcooke 

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Posted 24 April 2012 - 02:05

Hey BDG,

While Furnace Creek earns it's name, for 5 days out of this week, Buffalo, NY will be below the normal of 36.4F... Shake & Bake vs Steam and Ice...
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#20 User is offline   Dave K 

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Posted 24 April 2012 - 11:40

2.45 inches of rain recorded at Central Park, NY on the 23rd along with gale force winds. A foot of snow in the Allegheny mountains of Western Pennsylvania. And 99 °F in Las Vegas wich tied the hottest April temperature on record there.

Oh, that naughty jetstream!


http://www.wundergro...l?entrynum=2078
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