SPC currently leaning toward a Slight Risk for Super cell development with potential for tornadoes late Sunday primarily SE OK and Arkansas.
In reality this risk has the potential to go 'Moderate' on a local scale. If we look into the various forecast vector for strong circulation at mid levels we may then make some calculated prediction above and beyond the current model output! The current predicted lack of instability may well be an oversight if moisture is advected efficiently into the region. This is all early season potential but 2012 has all the hall marks of earlier than seasonal average model calculation?....In short it is quite possible that April will see May's average severe weather statistics and May, June's average! Whilst both the NAM and GFS have held back on instability so far for Sunday this may well become an underestimation based on season variations.
I'm sure that the SPC are currently busy dealing with this shortfall and will increase the risk potential very soon. Though I do hope they are in time!
This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 10 March 2012 - 21:19