[Tony Gilbert]

Posted Sat evening.

SPC currently leaning toward a Slight Risk for Super cell development with potential for tornadoes late Sunday primarily SE OK and Arkansas.

In reality this risk has the potential to go 'Moderate' on a local scale. If we look into the various forecast vector for strong circulation at mid levels we may then make some calculated prediction above and beyond the current model output! The current predicted lack of instability may well be an oversight if moisture is advected efficiently into the region. This is all early season potential but 2012 has all the hall marks of earlier than seasonal average model calculation?....In short it is quite possible that April will see May's average severe weather statistics and May, June's average! Whilst both the NAM and GFS have held back on instability so far for Sunday this may well become an underestimation based on season variations.

I'm sure that the SPC are currently busy dealing with this shortfall and will increase the risk potential very soon. Though I do hope they are in time!

This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 10 March 2012 - 21:19

[Bazmundo]

Mesoscale Discussion just issued for Ern TX, as the convergence starts to become better defined. Chances of more organised convection in the next two hours: http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0241.html

[Bazmundo]

Ern TX and a large portion of LA under a tornado watch: http://www.spc.noaa....tch/ww0071.html

Seems to have become a lot stronger further south than where I thought it would be, though I did offer a starting point of Mount Pleasant TX whilst myself, Al and Chris were practising last night.

[Tony Gilbert]

ATM the recent models and the now surface obs are still having trouble advecting sufficient moisture north and in line with the best upper support. TP looks like better option today but I don't really see this going Moderate based on the scale of things

This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 11 March 2012 - 19:43

[Bazmundo]

Two tornado warned cells in northern LA, flash flood warning for Jackson MS.

Slightly O/T, I bet these TCu made a great sunset for anyone sailing the Wrn Gulf about an hour ago.

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