ATL: 2012 Forecast Thread
Posted 16 March 2012 - 12:01
In the meantime, here's the names for the 2012 season:
Posted 22 March 2012 - 14:18
What with a weakening La Nina, I normally would expect an early, active GoM Season. The confouding presence of near stagnant cutoff/blocking events would likely define the "Window" of TS potential.
Looking at the current highly divergent or wildly swinging Northern and Southern Jet streams would suggest long period (2-4 week) windows for a "train" of weather phenomena (TS) events. I suspect these to be separated by long drought like sessions, in short a Summer of extremes.
As to "Fish Storms", I'm expecting a 2004-2005 like season..., hope I'm wrong.
Posted 22 March 2012 - 18:08
Posted 22 March 2012 - 19:32
Perhaps a weekly chart post of these through April and May might help in the run up to weigh up the changes in variables and find a comparable past season?
Posted 22 March 2012 - 19:58
I think that would be a great idea, though I believe I would have to rely on you and Paul..., at best I can only offer moral support and some local observations...
With the current winds at nearly a stand still coming from the Azores at 250mb and roughly 15 deg. N, conditions are ripe for convective activity in the Caribbean region...
Posted 23 March 2012 - 09:17
This post has been edited by Martyn Wells: 23 March 2012 - 09:19
Posted 30 August 2012 - 00:56