[Martyn Wells]

Tropical Storm Risk's early forecast was for another season marginally above the climatic average. NHC's forecast is due out in 3 weeks time. In advance, Director bill Read has given an indication that they are expecting a more average season as La Nina diminshes and SSTs in eastern tropical Atlantic are currently cooler than last year. See http://uk.reuters.co...E8E5DS920120305

In the meantime, here's the names for the 2012 season:

2012 AlbertoBerylChrisDebbyErnestoFlorenceGordonHeleneIsaacJoyceKirkLeslieMichaelNadineOscarPattyRafaelSandyTonyValerieWilliam

[Cindy]

Thank Martyn - I hope any storm we see go fish!

[ldavidcooke]

Hey All,

What with a weakening La Nina, I normally would expect an early, active GoM Season. The confouding presence of near stagnant cutoff/blocking events would likely define the "Window" of TS potential.

Looking at the current highly divergent or wildly swinging Northern and Southern Jet streams would suggest long period (2-4 week) windows for a "train" of weather phenomena (TS) events. I suspect these to be separated by long drought like sessions, in short a Summer of extremes.

As to "Fish Storms", I'm expecting a 2004-2005 like season..., hope I'm wrong.

[PJB]

I think aside from the actual Atlantic Forecast it would be interesting to see longer range predictions for the 500mb flow over NOrth America and the Western North Atlantic. Despite Above Average years frequent troughs off the US East Coast have recurved most storms. Wheras a flatter 500mb flow would allow for more storms to arrive in North America.

[Martyn Wells]

Not to mention the strength of the 925mb trade winds to understand if they'll help or hinder tropical cyclone genesis. All a bit early to say; come May we can get a better idea of the position of the ITCZ, trade wind strengths, position of the sub-tropical high, tropical SSTs, the start of the wave train and the position, strength and stubbornness of TUTTs. Plenty to add to the mix right now.

Perhaps a weekly chart post of these through April and May might help in the run up to weigh up the changes in variables and find a comparable past season?

[ldavidcooke]

Hey Martyn,

I think that would be a great idea, though I believe I would have to rely on you and Paul..., at best I can only offer moral support and some local observations...

With the current winds at nearly a stand still coming from the Azores at 250mb and roughly 15 deg. N, conditions are ripe for convective activity in the Caribbean region...

[Martyn Wells]

OK, a collection from 28 March for reference; no suprise to see the ITCZ well south, without any dsiturbance, low winds in the dodlrums and screaming windshear for this time of the year. Once again, as has been seen over the last few years at this time of the year a small warm pool developing off the African coast and slightly above average temperatures on GoM.

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This post has been edited by Martyn Wells: 23 March 2012 - 09:19

[Bazmundo]

I was just reading Brian McNoldy's blog and noticed he's hinting at this season being close to a nasty one, while it's noteworthy that the NHC did increase the chance of an above-normal season in their Aug 9th update.

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Kirk is the season's 11th named storm, which is 57 days ahead of climatology, 5 days behind the 2005 mega-season, and 1 day behind the 1995 mega-season.