Slight Risk of Thundery Showers with Hail Southern UK 11Z-17Z Sun 18th March 12
Weak surface troughing sags southward through Sunday initiating another round of showers with small hail primarily through the afternoon as steep upper troughing advects eastward. Slight to moderate risk of some showers turning thundery though I do not expect this to be wide spread in nature. Weak upper support and saturated mid levels expected to impede any lifted parcel. Though overall vertical lapse rate looks sufficient to overcome this restriction if pockets of increased insolation can occur. Some indication that a west to east line of convergence Mid Dorset through to Sussex could develop for a time increasing forcing at surface. With the gradual increase of lapse rates across this zone I do not rule out the odd early season funnel cloud observation though ATM lack of potential instability might suggest otherwise. Certainly good potential for some photogenic anvils with a clear horizon back drop, maybe!
This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 17 March 2012 - 21:44