[Uskys]

Way ahead though atm the period from Thursday into Friday could be the first sort of 'Spanish Plume' this year.

UK Met Office Fax shows a Low pressure forming in the Med just around Gibralter in 546 - 564 DAM during the week and this is forecast to move North right into the UK. Yesterdays 12z fax shows a Triple Point over Portland and the accompanying cyclonic flow on Thursday but Chris Fawkes showed at 12z this to be an occluded front heading up North over the of south UK on Friday. Should some warmer air make it up too , on the eastern flank of the depression I guess there could be some scope for some showers to develop during the March Sun.

But a long way off .

[Dave W]

..and not a spanish plume either

[Uskys]

Dave W, on 18 March 2012 - 12:28, said:

..and not a spanish plume either

Thats why I said 'sort of' Dave. Its the chance (however small) of a pocket of 564+ (or near to) being bought up by the low which could spark something into being

[Nigel Bolton]

It's an old cut-off moving northwards, so the air is cool within rather than plumeriphic. However, old cut-offs moving north can still generate elevated thundery outbreaks in combination of isentropic upgliding, the left exit of small jet on northeastern side of cold pool, and low level warm advection from the east ahead of the cold pool.

These cold pools moving north later in Spring can bring very severe storms, both elevated and in situ developments, The South Coast hailstorms on 5th June 1983 and the Farnborough stom on 24th May 1989 being classic examples.

N.

[Dave W]

Going to say looks more like a cold pool to me but that could still produce something quite dramatic, as Nigel alludes too

[PJB]

The ECMWF and UKMO GM are more bullish than the GFS on the progress of the cold pool Northwards. However study of the ECMWF EPS reveals the Op Run to be rather colder and wetter over SOuthern England at the end of the run than the EPS, which was generally warmer and sunnier more akin to the GFS. So we shall see.

[bensainsbury]

Anybody expecting any thundery activity Thursday night into Friday?

This post has been edited by bensainsbury: 21 March 2012 - 21:41

[Chris Alder]

For what little is likely to come from this I hope it doesn't spoil what could be a beautiful weekend within cloud and drizzly showers.

[bensainsbury]

Chris Alder, on 21 March 2012 - 21:49, said:

For what little is likely to come from this I hope it doesn't spoil what could be a beautiful weekend within cloud and drizzly showers.

Im expecting very little. Just wondering on peoples views.

This post has been edited by bensainsbury: 21 March 2012 - 21:53

[AndrewJM]

Just seen the BBC weather; a mention of thunder but only a few showers working up from Cornwall into the North-west and W Scotland, skirting all those areas at that. Anyone East of Anglesey is likely to be disappointed!!

This post has been edited by AndrewJM: 21 March 2012 - 22:42

[Nigel Bolton]

Low risk of thunder this way, this evening and overnight, methinks. Could either be from isentropic upgliding, or a very low risk of Continental import..

N.

[PaulKn]

You can tell it's been a long time without any thunder when a wandering cold pool in March with a bit of mid-level instability gets the juices running! That said, I always enjoy a southerly weather type, whatever time of year.

[Ben Taylor]

Been away from the charts for a couple of days, was intrigued today by the build up of mid-level cloud, higher temps and now virga appearing from the cloud level. All makes sense now! Perhaps N.Ireland will see the best potential convection tomorrow

This post has been edited by Ben Taylor: 22 March 2012 - 14:32

[PaulKn]

I think S Scotland looks best for convection tomorrow, although there certainly will be some over Ireland/N Ireland - however, the instability seems to decrease from south to north through the day as the upper trough continues to lift away. S Scotland, perhaps into the Central Belt looks like having the best combination of lift, moisture and instability around the time of peak heating. There's even some marginal shear, which could organise any convection into small clusters.