[Bazmundo]

Not far to travel (virtually) from last night's risk area. A new shortwave trough, confirmed on WV imagery, moves across the central Plains inspiring greater CAPE values than yesterday owing to upper temps falling with mid level lapse rates steepening. Latest RUC sticks with the 00z NAM and keeps the risk over SErn Neb and NErn KS, while the RR and HRRR are drawing me toward central Ern KS as more isolated storms fire further SW down the boundary.

Think I'd either play safe around Topeka KS, with the option to run the I-35 if further updates show some agreement on those isolated supercells. Either way they're not going to run away too fast.

Could be some strong and slow moving supercells in SWrn OK and the TX Panhandle later too, but no need to go that far.

[Tony Gilbert]

Yes, it was also interesting to see that the RUC was more accurate than the HRRR last night . The latter model kept most convection well to the NE KS state border! Whilst it is understood that the Rapid Refresh model is still experimental probably worth monitoring it to see how reliable it is over the next few weeks!

As Glyn says a similar outlook again and not too far from yesterdays storms. You cud have had a virtual lay in today, Glyn

Certainly some good scope for number of supercells though once again probably very late in the day for the stronger stuff. As a bonus we can expect the possible development of a triple point NE KS/ SE NEB. The triple point or just south of it on this occasion will need to be the focus if we want to see a tornado later today. CIN looks to keep convection very localised in SE NEB. My target ATM wud b Beatrice

This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 29 March 2012 - 16:47

[tcmorris78]

I'd be tempted to head a bit further north than Topeka....maybe somewhere along the 36 in northern Kansas with some decent north/south roads if required. Marysville is where id start the day.

[Bazmundo]

Going off the 12z runs for comparison, though I understand the experimental ones do their job nearer the time, the GFS is still more insistent on precip breaking out down the line by 0000z but the NAM less so and later as it has previously suggested. The NAM has also increased the EHI values for NErn KS so think I'm still safe north of Topeka.

The 12z RUC has pegged the central KS precip to 03z, and even then goes of the idea completely in recent runs. The RR does the opposite, ripping back the line on 12z runs but dropping it after a couple of hours, that said recent runs have increased the precip signal and for longer. The HRRR has followed it's Dad in this respect, with later runs tearing open the whole line back to TX, though keeping the central KS stuff brief.

So going off most recent, RUC says no while the RR/HRRR says yes to central KS isolated supercells by 00z. 12z GFS says yes, 12z NAM says no (until after dark).

However, as I type, and after spending half an hour on that lot, at 2230z.... precip is occurring in central KS.

[Bazmundo]

Nearly 00z and still nothing north of Topeka to the border. Looks like the initial line in central KS is organising into dominant cells, whilst the strongest stuff (going by dBZ and IR tops) is in Neb. Watching Ben McMillan up there via iMap, listening to the emergency messages giving me a real desire to get out there again!

http://content.wdtin...C=20226&O=10210

[Tony Gilbert]

Mostly hail reports with quite a good cluster near my last virtual position Beatrice SE NE. Though the best stuff over the next few weeks will develop under southward digging troughs!

In a virtual sense for today being Friday, I wud not be chasing all the way to Indiana/ Ohio! Too far for too little risk IMO . Though no doubt some chasers in the USA will still see this worth while!

This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 30 March 2012 - 07:51

[Bazmundo]

Think I managed to pick the huge gap in NErn KS, though I might have made it to later storms in Neb if I'd made an early enough decision to move.

Not much for a couple of days, perhaps some overnight lightning OK/TX border tonight. GFS is hinting at a more classic set up for Monday night, if a little devoid of upper support being just a cut-off upper low. There does look to be some decent troughs on the horizon as you say Tony.

[Tony Gilbert]

Bazmundo, on 30 March 2012 - 07:48, said:

today.gif

Think I managed to pick the huge gap in NErn KS, though I might have made it to later storms in Neb if I'd made an early enough decision to move.

Not much for a couple of days, perhaps some overnight lightning OK/TX border tonight. GFS is hinting at a more classic set up for Monday night, if a little devoid of upper support being just a cut-off upper low. There does look to be some decent troughs on the horizon as you say Tony.

Yep Glyn she looks like a real monster, digging right down to TX by Monday. Now at this point I wud pretty much be blowing everything out the window just to get to TX in preparation. Pretty much still a busy weekend with lots of model watching and a few beers. I once made the mistake in a similar case a few years back where I thought it wud be great to hang around for a while on the central plains doin a bit of sight seeing just to end up with a last minute panic drive all the way down to TX cos the whole synopsis jumped forward by one day. Not worth leaving to chance; best to get into the State or zone where the GFS/ NAM are predicting the best CAPE/ Shear overlay with a day or two to spare IMO

PS Monday has all the hall marks to go HIGH risk

This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 30 March 2012 - 08:06

[Bazmundo]

Tony Gilbert, on 30 March 2012 - 07:56, said:

Pretty much still a busy weekend with lots of model watching and a few beers.

I could appreciate a (virtual) couple of down days by the pool, sipping beers, watching models... wouldn't call it 'busy' though... lol.

Looking again, there does seem to be about 70-80kts up top on Monday. Could be nasty.

[Gone Fishing]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0332 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

VALID 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
ON MON/D4...A CUT-OFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SRN PLAINS...BUT
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SPEED AND LOCATION OF THIS
FEATURE. THE GFS REMAINS MORE PROGRESSIVE BRINGING THE LOW EWD ALONG
THE I-40 CORRIDOR AND INTO OK BY TUE MORNING...WHILE THE ECMWF
STALLS THE SYSTEM OVER W CNTRL TX. WHILE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE PREDICTABILITY OF
THIS SYSTEM IS TOO LOW TO DELINEATE ANY SEVERE AREAS. REGARDLESS OF
WHICH SOLUTION IS CLOSER TO REALITY...THE SEVERE EVENT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH HIGH END POTENTIAL.

FROM TUE/D5 ONWARD...THIS LOW WILL EITHER MEANDER EWD ACROSS THE
GULF COAST...OR MERGE WITH A NERN U.S. TROUGH AND PHASE ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS...THE PATTERN SHOULD BECOME
LESS ACTIVE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A REX-BLOCK PATTERN TO SET UP
D7-D8.


Brave Call That Tony - SPC Having none of it on this mornings latest 4-8 Day SWODY! After that it looks like the usual first half of May Pattern with Blocking setting up. Hope it is all waiting for us to come out in May!

[Tony Gilbert]

Gone Fishing, on 30 March 2012 - 09:06, said:

Brave Call That Tony - SPC Having none of it on this mornings latest 4-8 Day SWODY! After that it looks like the usual first half of May Pattern with Blocking setting up. Hope it is all waiting for us to come out in May!

SPC are renown for playing it safe this early before a big event. Partly because the models could change and partly through avoiding risk of embarrassment by making a false call. The truth is that a number of long range models are suggesting something bigger than what the SPC are currently saying. Hence the need for chasers to research their own model data and not rely on just one source of extended forecasting.

PS As always the proof will be written in the results for Monday. These things are never full proof!

This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 30 March 2012 - 09:33