A bit early to make any accurate forecast but worth a heads up for Tues Ireland and UK.
A double whammy for convective potential with the chance of an early morning squall with potential for severe gusts and a post frontal thundery regime for the remainder of the day. A very moist mild air lokks to advect north ahead of Tues. Also my attention is particularly drawn to the predicted sharply divergent upper jet stream. If the models keep the front left exit region in line with the cold front then we could have the potential for very strong and deep lifting dynamics for southern UK. ATM UKMO Fax chart shows a sliding triple point. If the TP slides south too early we might be left with a rather messy bag of wind and rain along the occlusion.
The post frontal troughing looks to bring scattered thundery showers across much of the UK. A marginally sheared environment could well see forward leaning anvils with the potential for one or two storms to become quite strong for a time.
There is currently some variation in the models with some pointing to the jet dropping south over the continent and away from the UK.
Anyway certainly one to keep an eye on!
This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 15 April 2012 - 08:46