[Bazmundo]

Day 2 outlook using some more unnerving language than previous suggestions, looks likely that tornadic supercells are possible. Expected surge in moisture across the Srn Plains, reaching the upslope areas of SErn CO as shortwaves around an approaching cut-off upper low start to initiate convection and surface winds converge. A good hunting ground for many here around that part of Colorado, some might even say 'magic'.

I think I'd err on the side of caution, based upon the current NAM which pushes the most intense precip signature nearly due east into KS after 00z, so maybe some right-movers then! Have attached some current NAM output for comparison. Think I'd aim for around Boise City in the OK panhandle at this stage, maybe even drop down to Highway 54 and use it as....

Quote

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA COAST...CENTERED NEAR
29N/127W...WILL EJECT INLAND EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING
NEWD INTO CO/NM BY 27/00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESPOND AND
BECOME DECIDEDLY SELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE LATEST
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED RECENTLY REGARDING THE AGGRESSIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...IT APPEARS A LEGITIMATE MOISTURE
SURGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEXT
24-48HR AND 60-65 SFC DEW POINTS MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION BY PEAK HEATING. TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL FAVOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THOUGH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGION FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SERN CO. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND 21-22Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE COULD EASILY EXCEED 2000 J/KG
WITHIN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
FAVORABLY SHEARED AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO LENDS CREDENCE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE PROBS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
ERN CO WITHIN STRONGER ZONE OF FORCED ASCENT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
EASILY SPREAD INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS BY MIDNIGHT AS LLJ INCREASES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

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[Ian Williams]

Hi Glyn,Based on current NAM model well my starting point isn`t a million miles away from yours Glyn, mine would be at Liberal on the Oklahoma Panhandle/Kansas border with good road options SW to Dalhart into the Texas Panhandle. The main concerns are high level cirrus, inhibiting heating up the surface layer. Will look at next couple of RUC runs before committing

This post has been edited by Ian Williams: 26 April 2012 - 12:02

[staffsstormspotter]

I think I'd push about 50k north of Liberal to Sublette. Better road options IMHO especially to the west (although west probably aint the way we'd be going)

Chris

[Ian Williams]

Looking at the dewpoint difference to surface temps (over 25F) looks like these storms will be high based. Its a shame that in SW Oklahoma where cape values are much higher, that it is so capped, if the cap could break some large hail from these would occur with quite steep lapes rates with a good cold dry slot from 850mb to 500mb. However if any storms could iniate here they dont look tornadic looking at the hodograms and helicity values.

I am tempted to go a little west to meet iniation and i think Baz (Glyn`s ) original positioning is good, but i am sitting tight in Liberal for now! All virtual of course, all makes good practice for the real thing in less than 4 weeks time

This post has been edited by Ian Williams: 26 April 2012 - 18:42

[Ian Williams]

Storms now initiating in SE CO, and TX Panhandle and one junior cell just going up NE NM, heading for Glyns locale at Boise City

This post has been edited by Ian Williams: 26 April 2012 - 21:57

[Bazmundo]

Steve Worthington's got a nice view of a high base and possible wall cloud developing: http://www.severestu...hington&uid=390 Dan Shaw's also streaming intermittently from up there near Springfield, I always say this but, nice bloke.

I'm not as happy with my targeting Ian, a line of cells and they're plainly avoiding me! Wouldn't have required much of a rejig though...

[Ian Williams]

Bazmundo, on 26 April 2012 - 21:57, said:

Steve Worthington's got a nice view of a high base and possible wall cloud developing: http://www.severestu...hington&uid=390 Dan Shaw's also streaming intermittently from up there near Springfield, I always say this but, nice bloke.

I'm not as happy with my targeting Ian, a line of cells and they're plainly avoiding me! Wouldn't have required much of a rejig though...

True but which way south or north? The Springfield cell in SE CO, Scott Hammel is on that and he has a cracking view

http://www.tornadovi...haser-video.php

Am at work so no GRL3 and cant do print screens

[Ian Williams]

Although the tail-end charlie on the north option in Colorado looks good the rest of the line looks like dying, DP`s ahead are only in the 40`s. I would be heading south to play with the storms in the TX Panhandle which have marginally bettter DP`s in the mid to high 50F range

[Bazmundo]

Based on the 20z RUC (while I was at work) I'd probably stay north, though not follow too far as it looks like another wave will occur out of the NErn corner of NM. The RUC shows most of this lot dying out, but that run hasn't really modelled the precip well.

[Bazmundo]

Recent RR runs aren't much use, but the HRRR shows the same further wave as the RUC, and has the best cells just into the TX panhandle - south it is Ian (at 00z)! lol

That cell to the north seems to hold together until then, with perhaps some focussed inflow when the next lot go up?

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[Ian Williams]

I quite like the look of that cell thats leading the pack on the TX/OK panhandles, just SE of Boise City and heading towards Liberal (ish) - should of stayed put? ring any bells hehe?

This post has been edited by Ian Williams: 26 April 2012 - 23:24

[Bazmundo]

The cell creeping into KS looks to be drying out from the bottom up, as you suspected Ian. Probably should have dived south earlier, roads look limited for getting down to the current line, so might settle for aiming for that cell near Boise City (ha!) as the IR satellite images are showing the next wave marked by growing Cu heading for that area.

Edit - posted at the same time! lol - You do realise that Boise cell has 2.25" hail on GR3, got over your phobia of cracked windscreens yet?

[Ian Williams]

And just to add Kris Heir is south of that cell racing north, i think the only way he may catch it is by taking the NE route on Highway 54 to Liberal, keeping the storm on his left hand/dry side. The huge anvil can be seen on his cam

Bazmundo, on 26 April 2012 - 23:26, said:

The cell creeping into KS looks to be drying out from the bottom up, as you suspected Ian. Probably should have dived south earlier, roads look limited for getting down to the current line, so might settle for aiming for that cell near Boise City (ha!) as the IR satellite images are showing the next wave marked by growing Cu heading for that area.

Edit - posted at the same time! lol - You do realise that Boise cell has 2.25" hail on GR3, got over your phobia of cracked windscreens yet?

LOL- The phobia was getting a huge bill when we returned it, but of course that didnt happen

[Ian Williams]

Well i am surprised Kris Heir didnt go for that cell, instead taking an east option to head off the others coming north, best cell and no one seems to be on it!!!

[Bazmundo]

Yeah, Steve Worthington was stalking it back and forth for a while. Now I think he's getting fuel at a silo and waiting for it to come to him.

Did you see the OFB propagating out of the back of that big line of cells? Just passed Vega TX on the 23.21z scan.

Edit - you can actually see it on the WV satellite imagery too! (attached)

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[Ian Williams]

Not sure what it looks like on GRL3 but our storm west of Liberal looks like a defo hook on it - using the imap radar. The storm west of Amarillo has a rotating storm cloud on it. OWLSP cam are on it.
That is impressive outflow. Looks great on that sat image

[Bazmundo]

Not much on the velocity scans, can't say for sure if it is a hook? Weirdly, our cell's about to crash into that KS creeper we were watching originally. I think ours is riding the outflow from the TX cells as it surges N'wd?

[Ian Williams]

Yes i think your right Glyn its certainly moving quicker than the KS Creeper - loving the lingo

[Ian Williams]

OWLSP Cam on tornadoesvideo.net has got a corking mothership cell showing on his cam atm

[Bazmundo]

HRRR 22z run says stay on the Boise cell, looks like it's doing some sort of split?

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