: Heavy Rain/Gales - Sunday 29th April - Chat Thread -

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Heavy Rain/Gales - Sunday 29th April - Chat Thread

#1 User is online   Andy Mayhew 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 18:14

Probably time to start a thread for Sunday's weather. The MetO kick things off:

http://www.metoffice...my-end-to-april
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#2 User is offline   Dave W 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 18:43

Cant see anything much which suggests a track into North Sea, just 10% of solutions on 12Z GFs think this.. & UKMO and ECM ops dont thin so either.. havent seen 12Z ECM postage stamps though
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#3 User is online   Lightning Hunter 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 19:12

Any idea what wave heights in the Western Channel might be Saturday p.m. into Sunday? Parents are returning (at sea) from a cruise at that time, from Biscay!
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#4 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 19:23

View PostLightning Hunter, on 26 April 2012 - 19:12, said:

Any idea what wave heights in the Western Channel might be Saturday p.m. into Sunday? Parents are returning (at sea) from a cruise at that time, from Biscay!


Nothing really of note showing atm

http://www.wundergro...=wave&animate=1

#5 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 19:25

GFS has this low at 982mb on sunday, and it seems a long way from the UK to produce gales.

#6 User is offline   PJB 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 19:38

ECMWF has it 987 over WEstern Channel and Very Strong WInds in the Celtic Sea and whipping around the low east of Jersey.
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#7 User is offline   Matt G 

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Posted 26 April 2012 - 20:35

Have been watching this for a few days now and I'm surprised how consistent this small deep low has been on each run. Being in Jersey this could be very interesting although the exact track could mean we get anything from a Force 6 (which has been an annoyingly regular feature of the last week or so) to a Force 9. Westernmost Cornwall to Finisterre look more likely to be in the firing line of some severe northerly gales.
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#8 User is offline   ChaserUK 

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 12:29

I think the key here would be a very tight pressure gradient caused by the low moving against the HP to the N - will be interesting here in Jersey in any case as you say Matt - where in Jersey are you BTW?
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#9 User is online   Nigel Bolton 

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Posted 27 April 2012 - 12:54

Due to the unusual nature of these lows, models often find them difficult to resolve.

One thing that needs watching, and this does occasionally happen, is when the developing low ingests more heat from central Europe, making the low more intense than the models would suggest.

Such a low on 19th May 1996, IIRC gave storm force southerly winds along parts of the south coast on this day, with many boats damaged in Poole Harbour.

N.


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#10 User is offline   Uskys 

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 11:30

Looks like some Snow for the mountains of Wales and the Northern Pennines on Sunday.... predicted by NAE & forecast on the BBC.
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#11 User is online   Lightning Hunter 

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 11:45

Already 8 hours of unexpected moderate/light rain here today so far. I suspect today might be wetter than tomorrow as the rain clears north.
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#12 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 12:35

View PostUskys, on 28 April 2012 - 11:30, said:

Looks like some Snow for the mountains of Wales and the Northern Pennines on Sunday.... predicted by NAE & forecast on the BBC.


A very outside chance I would have thought. 546 DAM air in place and 850 to 1000hpa temps of 133/134 DAM doesn't look promising, even on the mountain tops. Snow level at between 1200 and 1600 metres on sunday.

#13 User is offline   Dave W 

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 12:48

Temps down to 2C i see though on GFS mins overnight in Wales , agreed an outside chance
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#14 User is offline   Uskys 

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 13:26

Yes.... should have added that it was only an outside chance... and probably no settling under 3,000'.
Meto have 800m min temp tomorrow daytime as 1°C with a max of 3°C here in the Beacons and similar for 900m in Snowdonia.
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#15 User is online   Andy Mayhew 

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 13:34

Someone in Exeter is having a laugh - the yellow warning has now been updated to an amber warning. But only for Worcestershire :lol: This is what I get for complaining about the lack of rain for the past 18 months ......
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#16 User is offline   cyfrin 

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 15:14

One very nervous flyer here-and I'm due to take off from EGFF @ 1500, landing in EGJJ @ 1555. I have seen & read many differing opinions and am keeping my fingers crossed that it will be a smooth flight! Please tell me what you think ;)
I have vomit bags and valium at the ready LOL
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#17 Guest_Chris Lloyd_*

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 15:20

Sorry, should have said thickness of 133/134 DAM and not temp - doh. You get my drift (non snow) lol. And 1200 to 1600 metre snow level, hypothetical of course as this exceeds all peaks in the UK (apart from Ben Nevis at 1300 metres).

So after all that confusion I hope it does snow :P

This post has been edited by Chris Lloyd: 28 April 2012 - 15:23

#18 User is online   Dave K 

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 15:54

Radar coverage to our SE over France looks misleading still - I thought we were supposed to have that area of coverage improved? Big gaps in the rain which probably aren't really there and heavier rain seems to appear quickly "from nowhere".
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#19 User is offline   Uskys 

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 16:03

windspeed already up to 30mph mean here
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#20 User is online   Dave K 

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Posted 28 April 2012 - 16:11

Meteo France radar more helpful: http://france.meteof...nsatelliteradar
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