Just went moderate at 1210z as I was flipping through charts. The HRRR is modelling some strong helicity values for Ern KS, south of the Topeka area. Seems ongoing convection in view of the two upper troughs will die off northward with lines of showers affecting Nrn KS and NE, but a resurgence in surface cyclogenesis makes for a narrowing corridor of moisture convergence and strong 850mb winds across the Ern part of KS from fairly early on. Strongest convection looks to far SErn and Ern Kansas into Missouri after 00z.
If I was chasing from yesterday's risk, I'd be running from breakfast for the car right now as there's potentially most of Kansas to cover in order to keep up - a proper chase! I'd be in two minds as to whether to head for Salina through Dodge City, or perhaps better still head for Wichita then up toward Topeka as the later afternoon risk unfolds. The RUC will hopefully tell all soon...?
My thoughts are with the people of KS for tonight though, could be very dangerous.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE
STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTENSIFY FURTHER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL KS AS A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZE THE REGION. THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG/NORTH OF PRIMARY
INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE KC AREA BY EARLY EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
BECOME SURFACE BASED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF
TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/.