[Bazmundo]

Just went moderate at 1210z as I was flipping through charts. The HRRR is modelling some strong helicity values for Ern KS, south of the Topeka area. Seems ongoing convection in view of the two upper troughs will die off northward with lines of showers affecting Nrn KS and NE, but a resurgence in surface cyclogenesis makes for a narrowing corridor of moisture convergence and strong 850mb winds across the Ern part of KS from fairly early on. Strongest convection looks to far SErn and Ern Kansas into Missouri after 00z.

If I was chasing from yesterday's risk, I'd be running from breakfast for the car right now as there's potentially most of Kansas to cover in order to keep up - a proper chase! I'd be in two minds as to whether to head for Salina through Dodge City, or perhaps better still head for Wichita then up toward Topeka as the later afternoon risk unfolds. The RUC will hopefully tell all soon...?

My thoughts are with the people of KS for tonight though, could be very dangerous.

Quote

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN KS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER SYSTEM. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THESE
STORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTENSIFY FURTHER BY
EARLY AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL KS AS A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DESTABILIZE THE REGION. THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG/NORTH OF PRIMARY
INSTABILITY GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS AND
EVENTUALLY TOWARD THE KC AREA BY EARLY EVENING. BACKED LOW LEVEL
WINDS AND ENHANCED VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE WARM FRONT WILL PROMOTE
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY
BECOME SURFACE BASED BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF
TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/.

[Ian Williams]

Cheers Glyn, Just looked at the forecast soundings for SE KS and the hodographs are mental, high 0.1km helicity values too, should defintely see tornadoes with this set-up and large hail too. My target area in view of our virtual position from yesterday, would be Independence SE Kansas - good road options there too, although i would be sitting waiting for the storms to come to me after that long drive hehe

Lets hope no major town gets a big hit, Joplin once again in the firing line, heres the forecast sounding for there, again looks bad for them

http://www.twisterda...ng.lon=-94.5264

This post has been edited by Ian Williams: 27 April 2012 - 18:43

[Ian Williams]

Well, did i stay put? Did i heckers like, drove the virtual 109 miles to Emporia and now on the money, and some half decent storms

The route i would of taken

http://www.distanceb...mporia_ks/route

[Ian Williams]

Steve Blum - weathertweenies is on a real black as your hat storm, east of Abilene and chapman

live chase cam

http://www.tornadovi...haser-video.php

[Ian Williams]

Well i must say i would of been very disappointed had i been out there for real, with a moderate risk and the models were really pumping the helicity values - OK i would of been on the storms, but none were tornadic, most hail reports are pea size to quarter. Not sure what killed it all off, lack of shear perhaps. In the end a low end slight risk would of been about right.