[Lightningfox92]

Thought I would start a thread to speak about this oncoming week of weather.

Tuesday has a warning from the met office for thundery rain in Southern England and parts of Wales.

This post has been edited by Lightningfox92: 29 April 2012 - 13:02

[Lightningfox92]

Any information on tonight's and tomorrows rain? Meto stating it's will be possibly thundery.

Is there a good chance?

[Uskys]

Lightningfox92, on 30 April 2012 - 09:58, said:

Any information on tonight's and tomorrows rain? Meto stating it's will be possibly thundery.

Is there a good chance?

Read Paul's excellent prognosisin this thread It looks like an interesting night ahead for southern UK... though I feel any thundery outbreaks which will be embedded will be very isolated though if they do occur a lot of rain could be released in a very short time.

[Dave W]

06Z GFS op suggesting up to 30-35mm in a band from IOW NW to Somerset in period from about 20Z up to 03Z (ie around 6-7 hours)
,
NAE and Hirlam have less at about 20-25mm- but generally seem more widespread than GFS, Hirlam has 15mm or more in whole of the UK area southwards from Ipswich to Aberporth by 06Z

[Chris Alder]

Ah the dreaeded 'Thundery Rain' term! While it does seem possible there many be a convective/forced element to tonights rain usually the use of that term is enough to me think thunder is pretty unlikely (but not impossible)

[Lightningfox92]

Uskys, on 30 April 2012 - 10:22, said:

Read Paul's excellent prognosisin this thread It looks like an interesting night ahead for southern UK... though I feel any thundery outbreaks which will be embedded will be very isolated though if they do occur a lot of rain could be released in a very short time.

Cheers for that
The last thundery rain I had turned into a night of severe thunderstorms that last about 5 hours back in 2006!

[Lightningfox92]

Skies are darkening, no rain in the vicinity though yet but it's looking decent enough

There isn't a forecast in the thunderstorm forum yet?

Going to see what the weather says after the news, I think there will be some good activity tonight, I just hope I'm right!

Does anyone know the best time to look? Would it be after midnight, before; early tomorrow etc?
Planning to stay up all night if needed but would rather get a bit of sleep

[Ben Taylor]

Cumuli around here have started to grow to congestus size over the last half-hour, GFS showing a brief pocket of 100 j/kg available with LI of 0 near this area.

[RichC]

Sat24 shows quite a few thunderstorms breaking out in this push north towards southern England however i do not think they will last and probably cease on the French side of the channel.

[markabuckley]

very very odd sky in the S-East this evening - quite unlike I've seen in a while

lots of very high upper level clouds - mid-grey - but then dark grey mid-lower cloud that just looks like its cloud thats been shredded - more like the ripped apart scud you get associated with decent Cbs

its quite strange looking. Associated with it is light rain - but very large drops

[stormy sam]

Heavy rain approx 5-10 minuets ago ,possibly with hail?

This post has been edited by stormy sam: 30 April 2012 - 18:11

[Chris Alder]

Quite a few sferics appeared on the cells heading towards the IOW.

[bensainsbury]

Hopefully seeing a few storms tonight in Bristol.

[SkyWarn UK]

Developments now underway on the near continent that could well be the precursor to what we have instore later tonight and tomorrow. Could be some intense rainfall in some of the cells, and potential for some good lightshows later too

[stormy sam]

calmed down over here now oh and whats an sferics

[RichC]

Sferics = Lightning.

Nice and active at the moment in the cluster of cells in the channel.

[Lightningfox92]

The cloud has looked like it would before a Spanish plume event, some AcCast at times, thundery feel with hazy sunshine and then darkening of sky on and off.

It looks like I'm a bit far west for decent lightning if it occurs but I'm hopeful.

Still no forecast in thunderstorm forum

[Chris Alder]

Let's not get too excited, there were few sferics in the channel but I'm pretty certain lighting will in general be the exception opposed to the rule tonight!

[Dave W]

Yes, as ever the sferics have just died out mid Channel..

Chris, lighting will be about average Im thinking

[Lightning Hunter]

Some very nice mid-level convection over Southampton atm - rapidly building up and hitting an inversion, spreading out. Very clear, dark bases though and a classic 'plume' sky.