[skanky]

PK2, on 01 May 2012 - 20:40, said:

IIRC he is/was a regular on uk.sci.weather. I don't follow usenet these days but have seen a few references to there.

Thanks, I'll take a look.

[Dave K]

GFS run just gets better , -7 °C now for Sunday morning on the 06Z in Cheshire/Shropshire/Welsh borders. If that came off, Wales could have a new low minimum temperature record for May!

[Chris Alder]

Big Dave, on 02 May 2012 - 10:34, said:

GFS run just gets better , -7 °C now for Sunday morning on the 06Z in Cheshire/Shropshire/Welsh borders. If that came off, Wales could have a new low minimum temperature record for May!

I know this has been mentioned before given GFS 06Z has alot of drizzle, low cloud and mist I'm not sure I can see all that cloud clearing quick enough to allow a rapid enough temp drop to -7C.

[Andy Mayhew]

Based on the fact it's the GFS 06z temp charts - probably the least reliable of all of them - I'd say temps may just nudge below freezing in a few spots around the Marches

And as Chris says, it's not going to be cold, damp and cloudy by day with clear skies and sharp frosts by night! So either day or night temps will be higher than GFS is suggesting. Probably both IMO.

[Dave K]

Chris Alder, on 02 May 2012 - 11:00, said:

I know this has been mentioned before given GFS 06Z has alot of drizzle, low cloud and mist I'm not sure I can see all that cloud clearing quick enough to allow a rapid enough temp drop to -7C.

It's totally at odds with its prediction for cloud cover at the same time. Will be interesting to see what other (less flappable) models say in the coming days.

Still looks as if my site low maximum daily records are under threat for the 5th/6th/7th as the existing records are all above 10 °C. I'm hoping the GFS temps, while vaguely amusing in a masochistic way, are overdoing the chill!

This post has been edited by Big Dave's Gusset: 02 May 2012 - 11:13

[skanky]

Big Dave, on 02 May 2012 - 11:12, said:

It's totally at odds with its prediction for cloud cover at the same time. Will be interesting to see what other (less flappable) models say in the coming days.

Some idea can be gained from Met O forecast temps, can't they? Not sure if they will be completely UKMO or have some ECMWF influence.
However, the Meteogroup temp forecasts are based on ECMWF and they now extend to the weekend on Weatherpro.

So for example, WeatherPro is showing 2C mins and 8C & 10C maxes for sheffield.
MetO's droid app is showing 2C & 1C mins and 7C & 8C maxes for my actual location in S8.
The MetO website for Sheffield is showing 0C mins 3C and 8C and 9C maxes ( http://www.metoffice...st_weather.html ).

So that would suggest the UKMO and ECMWF are showing nothing lower than 0C for a min, and 7-10C for maxes.

Or is there some extra manual input that's going into "fixing" similar raw output values as GFS?

[Dave K]

I'm pretty confident that at least 3 of my site's low daily maxima records, and maybe even the month's low max of 7.7 °C here, are under threat from today through Monday.

[Uskys]

Big Dave, on 03 May 2012 - 09:45, said:

[font="Verdana"]I'm pretty confident that at least 3 of my site's low daily maxima records, and maybe even the month's low max of 7.7 °C here, are under threat from today through Monday.

I was quite surprised looking though my records of the few sub 10°C maxes here during May since 1985. I havn't counted them but its only around 10 to 15 times.. thats all.
1996 is the lowest with 6.3°C .

[Uskys]

Is today's weather not going according to forecast? ..... the front was meant to head north from the m4 corridor and peter out over Manchester/newcastle... it seems to me that its sinking south into the southern irish sea? ... I expect i'm missing something, though chris fawkes latest forecast did show rain over south wales for the rest of the day.

[Dave K]

Uskys, on 03 May 2012 - 11:27, said:

Is today's weather not going according to forecast? ..... the front was meant to head north from the m4 corridor and peter out over Manchester/newcastle... it seems to me that its sinking south into the southern irish sea? ... I expect i'm missing something, though chris fawkes latest forecast did show rain over south wales for the rest of the day.

Just seems to keep pumping cloud ceaselessly from east to west. Has to be said that most of Scotland and NI looks like it's having a lovely day!


BTW GFS drastically revised its Tmin forecasts for this weekend, much more in line with UKMO now with just isolated light frosts.

This post has been edited by Big Dave's Gusset: 03 May 2012 - 12:50

[Adam D]

The cloud broke here in Edinburgh at lunchtime, hooray!

It's not exactly warm though, brrr!

[Dave K]

Adam D, on 03 May 2012 - 13:05, said:

The cloud broke here in Edinburgh at lunchtime, hooray!

It's not exactly warm though, brrr!

You should be in Glesga then, it's baking there

[John Robert Mellor]

Uskys, on 03 May 2012 - 11:27, said:

Is today's weather not going according to forecast? ..... the front was meant to head north from the m4 corridor and peter out over Manchester/newcastle... it seems to me that its sinking south into the southern irish sea? ... I expect i'm missing something, though chris fawkes latest forecast did show rain over south wales for the rest of the day.

Certainly not going according to my own forecast for my locale published on my website. As Big Dave says, 'Just seems to keep pumping cloud ceaselessly from east to west' . Now, thats what i was expecting, but with the conveyor belt of rain gradually shifting north and fizzling out doing so. Will have to put an apology on the site tomorrow

[Dave K]

Looking "good" for a new date low maximum record here then, daytime max of 9.1 °C against standing record of 10.0 °C from 1985, and currently 8.8 °C. Really dank too under the gloomy overcast, has never truly dried up though the radar shows nothing in the vicinity, tomorrow and Saturday look set for much the same.

[Dave K]

This is Andy M's weekend ruined then

Quote

British Asparagus Festival cancelled due to flooding

An asparagus festival in Worcestershire has been cancelled following the recent bad weather.

Organisers of the British Asparagus Festival on Saturday said the "incessant rain and floods" had severely affected the local crop.

The planned venue for the festival - Workman Gardens in Evesham - has also been flooded by the River Avon.

http://www.bbc.co.uk...cester-17938035

[Andy Mayhew]

Aye, I think the gras would be a bit soggy! The river level has dropped now, but with today's rain it could rise overnight - and the Workman Gardens are the first place to flood.

[Dave K]

GFS 12Z is back with the -6 °C minima for Sunday morning!

[skanky]

skanky, on 01 May 2012 - 19:20, said:

Wasn't sure where to put this, so thought it was vaguely relevant here as it's chat, but I notice Philip Eden hasn't posted his May forecast yet. Does anyone know if he's said why, anywhere*? It could be as mundane as busy or travelling, but I wondered if there was met based reason.

Just to note, it's up now and actually, I don't think it's later than usual. I think I just checked earlier than usual.

http://www.climate-uk.com/page4.html

[HSEA2]

Maximum of 8.5c today. A little disappointing to be frank.

[Strider]

Big Dave, on 03 May 2012 - 09:45, said:

I'm pretty confident that at least 3 of my site's low daily maxima records, and maybe even the month's low max of 7.7 °C here, are under threat from today through Monday.

MySite_MayLowMaxes.png

That 2007 one didn't bode well for the summer!!