[Andy Mayhew]

bensainsbury, on 07 May 2012 - 18:38, said:

Any chance of thunder and lightning included?

Recent sferics in the Lynton area, N Exmoor

[Nigel Bolton]

Nigel Bolton, on 07 May 2012 - 18:29, said:

Please keep eye on system expected to move up Bristol Channel in next couple of hours. Some interesting shape and embedded intense rain or hail cores. Tornado risk in association, especially if any shed vortices from north Devon or south Wales are picked up and stretched by convection.

Tornadic activity likely to be rain-wrapped.

N.

Nasty looking LEWPs now developing, and is being strongly forced by PVA. A very promising looking system.

N.

[Andy Mayhew]

Nigel Bolton, on 07 May 2012 - 19:12, said:

Nasty looking LEWPs now developing, and is being strongly forced by PVA. A very promising looking system.

N.

Yes, I'm waiting for it to suddenly die out as it moves up the Severn towards me! :rolleyes:

[Jez Meyer]

Just a quick question.

Am I right in thinking that the longevity of the Oxfordshire storm is further evidence of supercellular characteristics? The way I understand it a mesocyclone creates a positive feedback loop which a)creates classic supercellular structure and b)makes that updraught persistent, therefore giving the storm a much longer lifespan than typical convective pulse type storms. Is this correct, and does the fact that today's storm tracked essentially most of the way across the country support the theory that it was a LT supercell?

[scrapemedic]

Looking at the latest images from Rain Today, there looks as if there might be something headed NE towards Brighton later this evening. You have to zoom in a bit, and its still out in the mid channel.

[Dave Hancox]

Due to Monday 7th being a busy day i have given it it own thread. New thread started for Tuesday 8th. http://www.ukweather...=new_post&f=133

[smartie]

Rough run of GFS-WRF init 06Z 9-3-1km grids. Produces a storm with a rotating updraught about the right place and time. Model storm has an intense core >50dBz suggestive of hail, a trailing 'flanking line' with RFD like feature, inflow notch and vort max (~0.04 s^-1). Suggestion of an over-shooting top at ~7-8km.
Model sounding from the inflow regions shows surface winds backed to the SSE, moderately high shear but only weak CAPE with a storm top only around 500 hPa. Nb the small CIN, low LCL and quasi-straight hodograph.
Overall the morphology supports Tony's suggestion this storm may have a 'cycling' aspect to it and it would be interesting to see what kind of track or tracks an SI could find.

Best,
David

This post has been edited by smartie: 08 May 2012 - 11:03

[Lightningfox92]

Any updates on Wednesday's rain? It looks pretty bad tomorrow evening so don't know if thunder and lightning are possible?

It looked amazing on bbc weather with so much rain.

[Chris Alder]

Lightningfox92, on 08 May 2012 - 17:33, said:

Any updates on Wednesday's rain? It looks pretty bad tomorrow evening so don't know if thunder and lightning are possible?

It looked amazing on bbc weather with so much rain.

Looks like just normal rain Jamie Im afraid.

[Lightningfox92]

Chris Alder, on 08 May 2012 - 18:25, said:

Looks like just normal rain Jamie Im afraid.

Ok
Thanks Chris