[bensainsbury]

GFS predicting high dew points and some CAPE this week, hoping for a few big storms!

[scrapemedic]

Can you be a bit more specific Ben, like when?

[bensainsbury]

Tomorrow to Friday looks to be interesting, hopefully diurnal heating will help boost the storms.

[staffsstormspotter]

there is certainly a convergence right down the centre of England tomorrow. Winds blowing from the South west of Wales and from the East to the east ( ) and then flowing down the middle of the country.

LIs are just negative and some SBCAPE ~200 j/kg early afternoon and a bit more later in the day (800j/kg at 1800z in some areas). Only trouble is I cant see where the "kick" is going to come from?

Chris

[Lightning Hunter]

All forecasts I've seen have said dry, warm and sunny until Friday in Southern England. Just the very slight risk of an isolated shower Weds.

[Chris Alder]

I think the dp's of 20c that gfs 12z Suggests are hugely over the top, take 3-5c of that and it's more realistic IMO.

[bensainsbury]

Humidity is not very high around 50%-60%. All it needs is enough moisture:(

[Ed.]

Be interesting to see what may or may not develop, doubt if we'll see anything widespread, saying that we can not rule out the types of showers that you'll definitely know about or should you get caught beneath one!


Okay..FI stuff, but some pretty amazing looking cape/Li charts into the beginning of June too, possibly the best chance of our first real plume event, likewise temps begin to rocket over the near continent.The murky, drab, coolness of late is albeit slowly but surely becoming a blot on the landscape!

[Nigel Bolton]

This type of situation is often down to convergence. With the air dry, any convection will be very isolated, perhaps forced by elevated heat source and convergence over the Pennines.

One other area that is notably prone in situations such as this is just to the northeast of Southampton. Here we expect to see the countries highest temperatures, coupled with the aspect of the South Downs, and also how the sea breeze in this type of situation tends to bend around the Isle of Wight and converge in the Eastleigh-Bishop's Waltham area. Have seen singular Cb develop in this area in sluggish heat on a number of occasions.

N.

[bensainsbury]

Met Office indicates a low risk of a thundery shower both Wednesday and Thursday.

[Howard Kirby]

There are a few Cu's bubbling over Welsh hills that I can see from here but nothing too exciting.

[Chris Alder]

Howard Kirby, on 23 May 2012 - 12:27, said:

There are a few Cu's bubbling over Welsh hills that I can see from here but nothing too exciting.

Thats what I've got here too. Another hour and it should be 25C+ down here, maybe jsut enough to kick something off?

[JOKE_SNOW]

25'c the trigger temp and we've reached that here. Fair weather cu for now but Met Office seem keen to have things developing within the next hour and a hour, anything which does emerge I imagine will be explosive in development but localised along the convergence. Of which the wind is westerly here so it's set up nicely across the Pennines for both lifting and gradient triggers.

[Tony Gilbert]

Some elevated cumulus around Solent area!

This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 23 May 2012 - 14:03

[Oliver900]

quite a lot of cumulus clouds have been coming in here from a south-east direction since 12:00

[Duncan Railton]

Fair weather Cu here too - Carlise reporting TCu which is visible on Satellite though. Obvious convergence setting up down the spine of Northern England too, so conditions for storms over the peaks are good.

[Mike Adams]

http://www.meteox.co...ar=-3&soort=exp Maybe not such a quiet evening for SE/East Anglia??

[Chris Alder]

Cloud increased here significantly in the last 30minutes, though no real deep to it. Just a hinderance really.

[Mike Adams]

I was too impulsive there with that link I think - it all moves out to the North Sea but produces a few light showers East Anglia/Far South East this evening.

[Howard Kirby]

Similar to my earlier post...most of Herefordshire seems clear but a few rather limited towers over Radnor Forest and south Shropshire hills.