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Not much cloud at all here. Although some cumulus popping up to my west.
Convective Chat 21st May onwards
#22
- Group: Chasers
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Posted 23 May 2012 - 15:42
In fact the 12Z soundings give a stout cap at low levels right across the board. If this remains the case then only orographic lifting above this level can develop convection today! 
#24
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Posted 23 May 2012 - 17:14
Lol at 06z tomorrow GFS has much higher dp's than 2m surface temps....
#25
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Posted 23 May 2012 - 17:19
Chris Alder, on 23 May 2012 - 17:14, said:
Lol at 06z tomorrow GFS has much higher dp's than 2m surface temps....
It has night mins of 16C but 2m dewpoints of 17C at 06Z, quite feasible!
#26
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Posted 23 May 2012 - 17:20
After being completely clear here all day, cloud now starting to bubble to our East.
#27
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Posted 23 May 2012 - 17:26
Tony Gilbert, on 23 May 2012 - 15:42, said:
In fact the 12Z soundings give a stout cap at low levels right across the board. If this remains the case then only orographic lifting above this level can develop convection today!
Looks like the Southern Uplands are providing that lift!
#28
Posted 23 May 2012 - 17:31
Well, it looked like the storm had cleared off as the sun came out, but it has started raining again and bang, a flash of lightning above the house!
It's lashing down again as well.
It's lashing down again as well.
#29
- Group: Frouks
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Posted 23 May 2012 - 17:31
Just watched the weather on bbc1 and the weatherman said that on Sunday there could be a thundery breakdown here in the southwest!! I know the chance is low but I'm probably going to get excited as its in my nature.
That would be awesome if there was some severe storms Sunday night!!!!
That would be awesome if there was some severe storms Sunday night!!!!
#30
- Group: Frouks
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- LocationBere Alston
Posted 24 May 2012 - 09:21
Could do with a few thunderstorms to cheer me up
#31
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Posted 24 May 2012 - 10:43
Reminds me of a story Jamie, many moons ago during one hot, sultry albeit very misty night..when a few very faint distant flashes of lightning soon became a raging overhead TS, fairly typical of a plume event i can imagine, the storm which literally came right out of the blue to my surprise!...as for today? some forecasts are going for a few more scattered storms and there's certainly a sticky feel - but let's be honest here, the season has only just began.Enjoy the warmth! 
#32
Posted 24 May 2012 - 12:00
Nigel Bolton, on 22 May 2012 - 14:49, said:
This type of situation is often down to convergence. With the air dry, any convection will be very isolated, perhaps forced by elevated heat source and convergence over the Pennines.
One other area that is notably prone in situations such as this is just to the northeast of Southampton. Here we expect to see the countries highest temperatures, coupled with the aspect of the South Downs, and also how the sea breeze in this type of situation tends to bend around the Isle of Wight and converge in the Eastleigh-Bishop's Waltham area. Have seen singular Cb develop in this area in sluggish heat on a number of occasions.
N.
One other area that is notably prone in situations such as this is just to the northeast of Southampton. Here we expect to see the countries highest temperatures, coupled with the aspect of the South Downs, and also how the sea breeze in this type of situation tends to bend around the Isle of Wight and converge in the Eastleigh-Bishop's Waltham area. Have seen singular Cb develop in this area in sluggish heat on a number of occasions.
N.
Still have same thoughts.
Keep an eye northeast of Southampton. Low risk, but if it fires, will go suddenly.
Elevated heat sources. Northeast Scotland, particularly Cairngorms. Two way sea breeze, plus convergence, plus elevated heat source likely to spark some slow moving and really sparky storms here.
N.
#34
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Posted 24 May 2012 - 13:38
Ed Shrops, on 24 May 2012 - 10:43, said:
Reminds me of a story Jamie, many moons ago during one hot, sultry albeit very misty night..when a few very faint distant flashes of lightning soon became a raging overhead TS, fairly typical of a plume event i can imagine, the storm which literally came right out of the blue to my surprise!...as for today? some forecasts are going for a few more scattered storms and there's certainly a sticky feel - but let's be honest here, the season has only just began.Enjoy the warmth!
Cheers Ed, would be a nice surprise
I hope we get lots of Spanish plume events this summer as its a fantastic way to end a hot day and it's lovely to watch at night
#35
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Posted 24 May 2012 - 14:35
Looks like the Cairngorms are the place to be today: some nice convection kicking off there! A few showers starting up the Pennines too.
#36
Posted 24 May 2012 - 14:38
Looks like some cell development on the borders of Scotland too, and in the North of England as well . Hopefully some will see some storms today.
#37
Posted 24 May 2012 - 14:47
Yep and those Scottish cells look like they will stick around throughout the evening
#38
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Posted 24 May 2012 - 15:03
Powerful line of bubbly convection to my NE & E, and one cell to my N in the distance observed through haze. One to my N looks like the cell near Penrith, but the others are yet to produce precip on radar.
#39
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Posted 24 May 2012 - 15:12
00ctober, on 24 May 2012 - 15:03, said:
Powerful line of bubbly convection to my NE & E, and one cell to my N in the distance observed through haze. One to my N looks like the cell near Penrith, but the others are yet to produce precip on radar.
New shower has just appeared now about 20 miles NW of Skipton, to my NE.
#40
- Group: Frouks
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Posted 24 May 2012 - 17:30
Just said on bbc weather that I may get storms Saturday and Sunday WAHOOO!!!
Also storms up in Scotland and north England this evening and possibly tomorrow
Also storms up in Scotland and north England this evening and possibly tomorrow
