Slight Risk of Thundery Showers Central & South Central UK 15Z-19Z Weds 23rd May 12
A bit early to be sure ATM but worth a heads up at this point.
UKMO fax chart forecast weak surface troughing along a north south central line of convergence. Synopsis shows this feature sandwiched between an Atlantic low and a weak surface depression over the continent with strong ridging east of Norway. With clear skies and warm advection from the south we might expect to see a number of isolated thunderstorms develop by late afternoon. Moisture looks somewhat lean ATM though the prime trigger looks to be surface convergence!
A note is made regarding Sea Breeze Convergence Zones;- GFS suggests up to 23 deg C possible inland. Conversely the SST are a mere 10 degC ATM . The net effect will likely develop a number of convergence zones along the coast where the models predict an offshore vector (primarily south coast).
Will update later tonight!
This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 22 May 2012 - 08:07