[ldavidcooke]

Hey All,

Here is a link to the Beryl Public Advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/260242.shtml

It was named and first posted at the NHC at 2300 EDT on the 25th.

[Dave W]

Cant be very often there are 3 TC/STC before the official start of the season.. if ever?

[ldavidcooke]

Hey Dave,

If you are including both N. Pacific and N. Atlantic, officially there have been four.

(Based on the satellite evidence of the Eastern N. Atlantic storm two weeks ago, you would be talking 5 pre-season warm cored events in the NH. This appears to be absolutely unique and unprecedented, to my knowledge.)

[P.K.]

Dave W, on 26 May 2012 - 07:59, said:

Cant be very often there are 3 TC/STC before the official start of the season.. if ever?

It would be a record assuming they do upgrade 92L. They didn't used to warn on sub-tropicals though.

[Halo]

From what I understand 1908 was the last year that produced two pre-season tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin although the first occurred in March, the second in May. Before that, there were two May storms in 1887. I assume they don't include subtropical systems. The last named pair of tropical cyclones during May in the East Pacific basin occurred in 2007. This same year also produced a sub-tropical system in the Atlantic in early May.

[Dave W]

P.K., on 26 May 2012 - 11:38, said:

It would be a record assuming they do upgrade 92L. They didn't used to warn on sub-tropicals though.

They must surely, it was so clearly -at the very least -sub tropical IMo


Intetesting times Dave yes.. 5 in the Atlantic basins pre season is quite remarkable and cant just be put down to better monitoring/more stringent classification IMO

[P.K.]

Dave W, on 26 May 2012 - 11:49, said:

They must surely, it was so clearly -at the very least -sub tropical IMo

It was probably actually tropical. It looked very much like Grace from 2009.

[ldavidcooke]

P.K., on 26 May 2012 - 11:38, said:

It would be a record assuming they do upgrade 92L. They didn't used to warn on sub-tropicals though.

Hey Peter,

Concur, this was the concern I was trying to raise earlier, in my questions about the European Windstorms. If the SSTs are in the 30C range and there is a closed circular center in an area of low shear, what are the chances it would develop warm core characteristics?

Though it may form North of 20-25deg. does this constitute a TC/TS? I and others were curious, to us it would seem, that if the center of circulation was North of the Northern Jetstream that it did not qualify. In your expert opinion what are your thoughts?

PS: Issue clearly does not relate to Beryl: http://squall.sfsu.e.../jetstream.html

[P.K.]

Well if SSTs are that high with a sufficient depth of warm water and the shear is low then there is certainly a good chance of a transition to tropical. Yes even if north of 25N it would still be a TC.

30C is pretty high though. Just look at this SST map from last Sept to see how it is only the GoM down towards the Caribbean which got anywhere near this.



Beryl is now a Tropical Storm by the way.

[P.K.]

May see a hurricane before landfall. Recon data shows 60kts surface now.

URNT15 KNHC 272254
AF308 0302A BERYL HDOB 21 20120527
224530 3045N 07950W 8429 01512 //// +118 //// 124069 070 053 021 01
224600 3044N 07951W 8419 01525 //// +120 //// 129067 071 058 017 01
224630 3043N 07953W 8416 01523 //// +119 //// 128067 075 055 020 01
224700 3042N 07954W 8427 01510 0052 +130 +130 127056 060 058 014 01
224730 3040N 07955W 8433 01503 0043 +141 +138 127059 060 044 003 00
224800 3039N 07957W 8433 01501 0040 +141 +137 128059 060 043 005 00
224830 3038N 07958W 8427 01504 0037 +141 +135 128057 060 044 004 00
224900 3037N 07959W 8429 01499 0032 +140 +134 132056 057 041 003 00
224930 3036N 08001W 8428 01494 0028 +141 +134 133056 057 042 003 00
225000 3035N 08002W 8431 01487 0024 +137 +136 131059 060 043 003 00
225030 3033N 08003W 8429 01479 0014 +139 +133 133058 059 045 003 00
225100 3032N 08005W 8433 01467 0005 +138 +137 132062 063 046 003 00
225130 3031N 08006W 8433 01464 9999 +130 +130 130060 061 048 005 01
225200 3030N 08007W 8426 01464 9987 +145 +140 131061 062 048 003 00
225230 3029N 08009W 8425 01456 9978 +145 +140 132062 062 049 004 00
225300 3028N 08010W 8433 01439 9964 +154 +140 130060 062 049 003 00
225330 3027N 08011W 8430 01438 9950 +167 +137 129053 057 045 003 00
225400 3026N 08013W 8430 01431 9936 +179 +133 120039 051 043 004 00
225430 3024N 08014W 8434 01423 9928 +189 +129 121030 034 037 003 03
225500 3023N 08015W 8425 01432 9924 +192 +116 122025 029 024 002 00

Reduced size ( 38 K), click image to get full-sized image ( 251 K).

[ldavidcooke]

Hey Peter,

I don't know that it has enough fuel. The wv satellite GOES E image shows extremely dry air over the GoM. Combined with the land proximity reducing the wv content of the feeders it would surprise me.

However, down near Belieze, near Cozemel (between 11-16N and 75-80W) there is a very interesting convective development. Strong convective cells north and south of what looks to me to be a depression and the curve in the outflow seems to suggest the beginnings of circulation.

With the Southern Jetstream North of this area and low speed winds in the 250mb range (less then 10-20k) would seem to offer a good opportunity for development. (I would not be surprised to see some Caribbean activity within the next two weeks, either way...) This current activity near Belieze reminds me a bit of Hurricane Charley (Aug. '04)...

[ldavidcooke]

Hey All,

Well it looks like the closest we get to Beryl is 5 miles to the Western core feeder band... Sitting here I can watch the Eastern sky darken and lighten as the convective plumes parade by...