[Tony Gilbert]

8pm Fri

Moderate Risk of Isolated Thunderstorms SW Scotland Through to Humber 11Z-18Z

A low risk as far as severity is concerned though based on current model output a fairly moderate risk for general thundery activity results within the said region.

Wrapped occlusion continues to spiral within a quasi central state across the UK bringing further periods of rain and some convective showers over mid and northern regions through Saturday. GFS and NMM models predict increasing instability along the NE periphery of the occlusion with the potential for isolated convection. Some of which could well become thundery, especially toward the Humber region by mid afternoon. The breakaway upper trough will remain aloft in this region allowing for as fairly rapid increase in lapse rates as any building storm cells move SE toward this zone during the afternoon. GFS predicting a region of pooled moisture at surface close to 100% humidity and this will likewise become the focus for the best storm development. Fairly weak upper support and limited convergence would appear to limit any severe potential though I cannot rule out the odd funnel closer to the Humber region based on very localised conditions ie. thermal or convergence!As is often the case with similar synopsis heavy cloud cover can just as easily suppress any forecast potential. Having said that the basic outlook remains a good possibility ATM!

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This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 08 June 2012 - 19:27