[Martyn Wells]

P.K., on 24 June 2012 - 17:54, said:

That is the remnants of Debby however the NHC don't believe the GFS solution and have it pretty much over New Orleans at that point!

They do now and it concurs with the ECM ;0

[Dave W]

After the short lived plume midweek a cooler spell for 5 days progged by GFS from the 29th then a gradual warming after that as 850 temps rise in south to a mean of 10C but never looking esp settled overall tbh..

[PJB]

Martyn Wells, on 25 June 2012 - 12:00, said:

They do now and it concurs with the ECM ;0

Yes GFS much better with Debby than ECMWF, Interesting poor handling of this system relative to its usual performace.

[PJB]

of note the GFS over the last few runs has slowly built 500mb heights to the south and over the south of the UK into July, this is the area to watch to push the JEt north and bring more settled conditions into the UK. nothing will change until 300/500mb heights build as any nice weather will be transientary

[Andy Mayhew]

In that respect, worth also taking note of this:

http://www.ukweather...ropean-outlook/

Time will tell if he's right!

[Dave W]

Not a trend shown by ECM op though at 12Z which a very zonal outlook through to HH240, rather cool too then

[PJB]

indeed Dave, not much push north of the Jet on the 12Z ECMWF. very zonal close to 50 N even at Day 10

[Dave W]

Well today- say it quietly -but there does look like there may be a bit of pattern change on the horizon from about the 1st July.. as heights rise generally to the S and SW , high pressure more in evidence over the southern Uk and the jet moves further north although some meridionality as cut off lows meander south in the Biscay region at times as well ... this evident on the 12Z GFs, ECM but to much less an extent on the UKMO/UKMO BOM runs but the UKMO GM -just IMO- has been playing catch up on trends for some time now .. we shall see if it all develops in the next few runs or zonality reasserts more again in the the other model trends

[PJB]

Models flip flopping about abit atm , which is sometimes indicative of a potential pattern change. ECWMF has flipped to the GFS's ideas of a few runs ago about building high pressure over the UK. GFS has flipped to ECMWF ideas from a few runs ago about maintaining more unsettled weather next week.

[Chris Alder]

Typical, pattern change potentially on the horizon as I'm about to leave the county for two week, you wait and see I'm sure things will manage to pattern change to there current position about the 19th July should we indeed get some sort improvement.

[Jim_AFCB]

It will be rubbish here next week as I am off and not going anywhere!

Seriously, it might not be too bad compared to recently, but the models are not in agreement so who knows....

[Dave W]

Doesnt look all that great again tbh tonight. a more bit unsettled again overall.. ECM goes more meriodinal with a cut off low to the south west making it likely still pretty unsettled in the SW/south at the HH144-240 range

[Strider]

Nor this morning, GFS has things pretty unsettled for most of the UK bar possibly the SE next week, ECM too is very keen on lower pressure over central Europe.

Warmer start to July than June, but still fairly unsettled.

This post has been edited by Strider: 29 June 2012 - 07:23

[Dave W]

Yes any sign of rising pressure has gone from the GFS ensembles runs now to be replaced by further areas of low pressure the pressure mean in the south slipping back towards 1010 from the 1020 it reached a few days back, though ECM op was still opting for a bit of a change to the regime by HH144 onwards

[Howard Kirby]

There could be further thunderstorms second half of the week too if GFS is to be believed...that flabby low pressure feeding some warmth across the eastern half of the UK.

[Uskys]

Some minor hint of a change to the jet stream in a weeks time on GFS, could it move a bit north after?

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[Chris Alder]

Well next week looks pretty rubbish doesn't it? plenty more cool Atlantic dominated conditions with cool temperatures and showers or longer spells of rain,while once again places on our latitude in astern Europe see temperatures soar well into the 30's C. I think the point of no return is coming for the summer of 2012 and it may not be that far away.

[Christopher]

Looking at the 850 hpa temps for the next couple of weeks we are struggling to get them above 5 degrees. Meanwhile, the entire continent, as far up as Scandinavia, parts of the mid atlantic and northern Canada are all basking in 850's of between 10 and 15 degrees, with associated parcel thicknesses that we see but 2 or 3 times a year.

If only Greenland wasn't there.

[Dave W]

A pattern change from ECM 00Z op by day 8 to something a lot more settled but I wouldnt hold your breath about it as yet..

[Dave K]

We may be a bit better off than most in the SE this week but I'm quite glad to see "sensible" temperatures around 18 - 21 °C later this week rather than 30 °+ TBH! The early part of the week looks a bit drab but at least the winds will die down, and ECM 00z plonks a HP over the UK for late in the run - though we've seen those vanish as we get nearer...