[BUTTERFLY]

"But 1995 here saw an almost equally poor start to June which flurished quite suddenly into a very good July and August, so the game is not over yet even if there is no immediate sign of a major change. "

Don't know about Kent, but although in June 1995 the heat only started after about 20th, there was nothing like the amount of rain, low maxima or lack of sunshine in 1995 compared with 2012 here in Northern Ireland (the great majority of the months rainfall, which was about 21 mm in my garden here, fell in a single fall about 19th or 20th. Shortly after a very warm and sunny spell started, which continued more or less until late August apart from a couple of warm but showery weeks in July (which was fortunate for gardens, etc). There doesn't seem much prospect of this this year.

Exceptionally high temperatures in March are often a very poor sign for the coming summer, e.g. 1965, although 1929 had a reasonable summer and 1968 was actually on the dry side and quite sunny in Northern Ireland, although wet in SE England.

There are of course precedents for poor Junes being followed by good July and Augusts, e.g. 1955.

[summer '85]

 BUTTERFLY, on 24 June 2012 - 09:20, said:

"But 1995 here saw an almost equally poor start to June which flurished quite suddenly into a very good July and August, so the game is not over yet even if there is no immediate sign of a major change. "

Don't know about Kent, but although in June 1995 the heat only started after about 20th, there was nothing like the amount of rain, low maxima or lack of sunshine in 1995 compared with 2012 here in Northern Ireland (the great majority of the months rainfall, which was about 21 mm in my garden here, fell in a single fall about 19th or 20th. Shortly after a very warm and sunny spell started, which continued more or less until late August apart from a couple of warm but showery weeks in July (which was fortunate for gardens, etc). There doesn't seem much prospect of this this year.

Exceptionally high temperatures in March are often a very poor sign for the coming summer, e.g. 1965, although 1929 had a reasonable summer and 1968 was actually on the dry side and quite sunny in Northern Ireland, although wet in SE England.

There are of course precedents for poor Junes being followed by good July and Augusts, e.g. 1955.

Yes you can't compare this June with the June of 1995, it's nothing like it, for a start that June is in the top 10 driest Junes on record for England and Wales whilst this June looks like being in the top 10 wettest. Bit of a difference.

[HSEA2]

 StephenS, on 24 June 2012 - 02:14, said:

.... and they said last summer was bad!

http://www.guardian....her-cold-summer

An interesting read.

I'm afraid I'm old enough to remember some stinking summer weather from about 1960 onwards, as well as glorious heatwaves. Unfortunately, memory is selective and deceptive. In my mind, I spent all of summer 1964 kicking and hitting balls around in unbroken sunshine. The stats. however, say otherwise.

Pretty much what my parents say. When i quiz them about the atrocious summers of the 1960s they are under the impression they were actually warm and sunny...

[Uskys]

 summer, on 24 June 2012 - 07:38, said:

You are not related to Terminal Moraine of net weather?

Is there somebody else who likes damp cold wet windy weather in the UK too? .. I'll have to pop over and have a chat

It is interesting, if a poll was taken by UK residents on the general type of weather they like I wonder how many actually prefer this sort of weather which does make up a large proportion of UK weather.

[HSEA2]

 StephenS, on 24 June 2012 - 02:14, said:

.... and they said last summer was bad!

http://www.guardian....her-cold-summer

An interesting read.

Funny how perceptions of seasons dont tie in with months, also. According to the guardian link, taken as a whole, summer 2007, which was miserable, i recall, was one of the warmest on record,(17.81) and far warmer than the memorable summer (well, june and july) of 2006 (16.66). and also warmer than the summer of 2003 (16.2c)

[Dave K]

 summer, on 24 June 2012 - 09:27, said:

Yes you can't compare this June with the June of 1995, it's nothing like it, for a start that June is in the top 10 driest Junes on record for England and Wales whilst this June looks like being in the top 10 wettest. Bit of a difference.

Let me clarify then that I should have said with regard to temperature over the first three weeks because yes it was much drier.

My stats 1st to 21st June 1995

Avg Tmax = 17.6 °C
Avg Tmin = 9.7 °C
Avg Simple mean = 13.62 °C
Abs Max = 24.0 °C

My stats 1st to 21st June 2012

Avg Tmax = 17.4 °C
Avg Tmin = 9.9 °C
Avg Simple mean = 13.65 °C
Abs Max = 23.4 °C

In that context of temperature alone in that period I think you can agree there is a great similarity

By Christ one has to be so specific here

So I reckon it could run alongside 1987 on current form as a poor summer in my lifetime, and for clarity that's as far back as I can go with a mixture of memory and my own stats. There may have been worse in the 60s or 70s for all I know or care.

This post has been edited by Big Dave's Gusset: 24 June 2012 - 09:56

[Dave W]

..or indeed even the wettest June!

[Dave K]

 Dave W, on 24 June 2012 - 09:54, said:

..or indeed even the wettest June!

Well that at least has the benefit of being quantifiably measurable and not subjective, except pedantically that you need to add "on record"

[Dave K]

Another point about 1995 here was that the first three weeks of June was rather dull with 82 hours of sunshine for London compared with 71 hours for 2012. So whilst it was dry it was not exactly auspicious start to summer, and while I don't think such a seismic shift is likely this summer it won't take much to improve it!

Of course, as if the usual big UK summer outdoor events and sports weren't enough to annoy the mocker gods, we have also had the Jubilee stuff and the Olympics coming up to really arouse their ire, so who knows just how bad it could get to show the rest of the world...that we actually have 3 months of winter and 9 of autumn?

[Duncan Railton]

Going by my summer rating scale this *is* the worst June and the worst summer month I've recorded since I began rating in 2004. July and August will have to be above average to prevent a "worst summer" score - but we've not had a hot August in a long time. Two weeks of scorching weather in August would probably turn the tables for this summer - 2 weeks is all we need, oh and some "less dreadful" interludes...

[Dave K]

 Duncan Railton, on 24 June 2012 - 10:31, said:

Going by my summer rating scale this *is* the worst June and the worst summer month I've recorded since I began rating in 2004. July and August will have to be above average to prevent a "worst summer" score - but we've not had a hot August in a long time. Two weeks of scorching weather in August would probably turn the tables for this summer - 2 weeks is all we need, oh and some "less dreadful" interludes...

Much the same here Duncan, but using a slightly different index to allow comparison with older data 2011 was the "worst" here since 1987, so 2012 has to beat that first!

At the moment in that less complex scale June 2012 scores 141.6 compared to 146.3 for June 87, so it's not even sure yet if it will be the worst June ( I don't "remember" June 87 really of course to compare to this year, just have to go by stats).

[oldsynth]

snow hope said:

1340446077[/url]' post='807645']
This summer has been nothing other than terrible so far. With the Met Office outlook well into July remaining unsettled with below average temperatures, lets have a chat about what is going on! I am starting to think we really have entered a different regime regarding this year's summer weather. In N Ireland we have had 5 poor summers in a row now, but this one is actually much worse (so far) than any of the last five.

We are experiencing high volumes of rain and very cool maximum temperatures, with no light at the end of the tunnel. Even the South of England seems to be getting really lousy summer weather, so it must be quite a shock to those folks.

What do you think is the underlying cause and why? If you think there have been worse summers in the last 60 odd years, which ones? Anecdotally, my mother remembers some very poor summers in the early 60s in N Ireland, but she says this summer is the worst she can recall, so far.

Hi, I'm new on here. The weather has always interested me. This summer (so far) has been a real let down. Two thing strike me these days, compared to how I remember summers that I recall earlier in my life. Firstly, since the awful summer of 2007, we don't really seem to have had many "Still" days. There always seems to be that bl**dy annoying wind all of the time. Secondly, we seem to have our decent weather in early April then from then on, unsettled and poor. Obviously, there is more energy driving the weather systems these days due to global warming so I guess that the knock on effect is wilder winds. I don't expect this summer to be any better than the last 5 poor summers but I live in hope.

[BUTTERFLY]

"Another point about 1995 here was that the first three weeks of June was rather dull with 82 hours of sunshine for London compared with 71 hours for 2012."

Knowing how much local variation there can be in a month within the British Isles (someone living in Baltasound in Shetland where the rainfall up to 0600 on 25th June was only 10.6 mm, with 15.0 mm at Fair Isle also in Shetland, might wonder why everyone is talking about it being very wet - see http://www.met.readi...rugge/CURR.html), given the statement above and the statistics by BDG for June 1995 and 2012, I do accept that what he said was true.

Capel Curig in North Wales, which has recorded 271.0 mm is of course a very wet upland site; the only other station to exceed 200 mm so far in June has been Eskdalemuir in Dumfries and Galloway, Scotland, at 202.4 mm, though as Ballypatrick Forest in Co. Antrim, Northern Ireland, has recorded 199.6 mm it is extremely likely also to exceed 200 mm before the end of the month. Percentages of average relating to average total fopr the whole month of June, in the period up to 0600 hours in 25th June vary from 36% at Stornoway in the Isle of Lewis, Outer Hebrides, Scotland, to 244% at Heathrow Airport, London; when calculated relative to the average for the period ending 0600 hours on 25th, these equate to 45% and 305% respectively; only Lerwick in Shetland (57.5%) and Kirkwall in Orkney (76.3%) had rainfall less than average according to this calculation, for the period up to 0600 hours on 25th, 15 sites at http://www.met.readi...rugge/CURR.html had more than 200% of average rainfall for the period from 1st to 24th June.

http://www.personal....her_in_june.htm also states that the 1st half of June 1995 was cool and cloudy, with the 2nd half being warm and sunny. However I wonder were the low sunshine levels in 2012 and the lack of any decent maxima, as widespread in the earlier part of June 1995?

Of course memory is selective and I remember June 1995 chiefly for the period of hot sunny weather near the end, particularly 29th which was about the hottest day I can remember (the temperature of 32.0 deg. C. which I recorded, admittedly a non-standard thermometer and exposure, is the highest I have ever recorded at my place of work since I began measurements in late May 1995, including August 1995 and July 2006, which both recorded around or over 31 deg. C. I believe. I believe that 30.0 deg. C. was recorded somewhere in Northern Ireland in June 1995, possibly at St. Angelo Airport near Enniskillen, Co. Fermanagh, with 30.6 deg. C. on 2nd August 1995 at Ballylisk near Tandragee, Co. Armagh, the latter the highest official August temperature recorded in Northern Ireland and within 0.2 deg. C. of the official highest temperature for Northern Ireland of 30.8 deg. C. at Knockarevan near Garrison, Co. Fermanagh, on 30th June 1976 and at Shaws Bridge near Belfast, Co. Antrim, on 12th July 1983.

The extremely low sunshine sunshine at Nottingham Weather of 44.9 hours up to 0600 hours on 25th June(which must mean that there were 1.9 hours on 24th), barely a quarter of the average of 170 hours, is phenomenally low, assuming the instrument is not faulty (although I realise other places, e.g. in the west midlands, also have had less than 60 hours in the same period). It is I believe rare for a station to record less than 50% of average sunshine for a summer month so far one to record less than 30% (of course there are another 6 days, and the total could actually double if the weather became sunnier).

For the period up to 0600 on 25th, which is more or less equivalent to 24 days, http://www.met.readi...rugge/CURR.html shows sunshine varying from 44.9 hours (1.88 hours/day) at Nottingham Weather Centre to 169.9 hours at Jersey St. Helier (7.08 hours/day); the only other stations to record more than 100 hours are Stornoway on the Isle of Lewis, Outer Hebrides, Scotland, with 156.2 hours, Tiree in the Inner Hebrides, Scotland, with 145.8 hours, Lerwick in Shetland, Scotland, with 128.6 hours, Belmullet, Co. Mayo, with 127.7 hours, Manston in Kent with 120.7 hours, Ronaldsway in the Isle of Man with 118.4 hours, Valley in North Wales with 115.8 hours, Boulmer in Northumberland with 108.8 hours, Aberporth in Wales with 103.6 hours. Eskdalemuir in SW Scotland with 49.3 hours, Church Fenton in Yorkshire with 52.3 hours, Shawbury in Shropshire with 53.2 hours, Aberdeen Dyce with 55.9 hours, Coleshill in Warwickshire with 59.6 hours, Percentages, which relate to the average total sunshine for the month, where given, vary from 34% at Shawbury in Shropshire to 101% at Lerwick in Shetland; for the period from 1st to 24th these correspond to 42.5% and 126.3% respectively. Using this correcion factor, Lerwick is the only station to record more than 100% of average sunshine for the period, Belmullet being the next highest at 98.8%. Bournemouth Hurn in Dorset (45%), Waddington in Lincolnshire(46.3%), Aberdeen Dyce and Eskdalemuir (both in Scotland and at 47.5%), and Leeming in Yorkshire (48.8%), have all recorded less than 50% of their average sunshine for the period. Of these, Bournemouth has the highest average at 253.8 hours or 8.47 hours per day. Some people have remarked on the relative advantage of coastal resorts in months such as this one, but for sunshine at least (no rainfall figures are shown at present for Hurn; St. Catherine's Point on the Isle of Wight has recorded 97.6 mm so Hurn probably wasn't all that dry) Hurn hasn't come off at all well this month - I presume it is not too far inland, - states that it is 4 miles north of Bournemouth so is not really coastal as such.

[Dave K]

I think that for my site (sadly not for many in the north, nor even perhaps outside the SE corner) there is going to be quite a marked difference between the first and 2nd half of June by the end of the month. Not nearly as notable as that for May thanks to its hot spell but still should show clearly in the stats. Taking that as a starting point, I think the the combination of low maxima, rainfall (amount +frequency), lack of sunshine and spells of strong winds will make it hard to find a worse first half of June here for 30 years at least (could be much longer of course, if I had the local stats).

June as a whole here may recover a little but is likely to be in the coolest/wettest three since I started recording temp and rain data in '85, possibly coming out better than 1991, and warmer but much wetter than 1987. One big downpour this week though could yet see it be wetter than 1991.

[London Calling]

One good thing about this summer is that even a return to average conditions would seem a big improvement. The south-east often fares better, but not this year. Part of the problem is that we became accustomed to the prevalance of hot, dry summers in the 1990s and 2000s. My memory stretches back to the 1960s when there were more summers like this one (except back then there seemed to be more thunderstorms). Though we didn't know it at the time, there was to be a gap of 16 years - 1959 to 1975 - between hot, dry summers. Maybe we're in the early stages of a similar run of poor summers?

[Duncan Railton]

I honestly don't think there has been a "climate shift" or anything like that regarding our summers. Last year had cool nights but scored overall pretty well, and 2009/10 weren't shockers. 2007 was, the first part of 2012 is, and we haven't had "scorchio" since 2006 - which was *exceptional*.

We have had other runs of awful summer weather before and we will continue to. I do suspect it has something to do with a weak sun though.

[BUTTERFLY]

"According to the guardian link, taken as a whole, summer 2007, which was miserable, i recall, was one of the warmest on record,(17.81) and far warmer than the memorable summer (well, june and july) of 2006 (16.66). and also warmer than the summer of 2003 (16.2c) "

Clearly the figures given for summer 2007 should refer to summer 2006, those for 2004 to 2003, and so on. June 2007 was warmer than average, particularly in some western parts (e.g. it was the warmest June on record at Belmullet, Co. Mayo, in western Ireland and also sunnier than average (unlike June 2012, there was about a week of warm and sunny weather from about 4th-11th); July was also quite sunny in North-west Ireland, with Malin Head in Co. Donegal having its sunniest July since the very sunny one of 1955. As a result, Belmullet above actually had slightly more sunshine than in summer 2006, even though that included the very sunny July.

Although the rainfall totals are similar here, this has been a worse June than 2007 because of the relative lack of sunshine and lack of almost any high temperatures, except for 2 or 3 days this week; previous to this, in Northern Ireland the temperature had only just reached 20.0 deg. C. one one day in June 2012, at Ballywatticock in Co. Down on 10th June; although it subsequently reached 23.1 deg. C., this was not much higher than the highest in March of 21.4 deg. C. at Giants Causeway, Co. Antrim, on 27th March and lower than the 26.3 deg. C. at St. Angelo, Co. Fermanagh on 25th May, which may well end up as the highest temperature of 2012 in Northern Ireland. I think the last year when Northern Ireland had its highest temperature of the year in May was in 1978 or possibly 1980.

[Dave K]

Here, using my site records, it will probably be the coldest June since 1991, though it may yet beat 1995 if it warms up this afternoon, currently 3rd wettest but could go 2nd, most likely it would be the dullest if I had my own sunshine records available alongside temp and rainfall. I would think one of the ten dullest Junes on record for London for official stats.

Comparison of the 1st and 2nd halves of June will be quite revealing as the 2nd half has been fairly normal here (though obviously this is not reflected nationwide).

[Andy Mayhew]

Aye, 2nd half of June has been pretty normal here too - not looked at my figures yet to see if the warmer weather has made up for the cold start though.

Looks like ending up my wettest June since 2009 and 3rd wettest since 2007. So I guess in terms of recent trends, even rainfall has been pretty normal!

[snow hope]

Andy Mayhew, on 30 June 2012 - 09:43, said:

Aye, 2nd half of June has been pretty normal here too - not looked at my figures yet to see if the warmer weather has made up for the cold start though.

Looks like ending up my wettest June since 2009 and 3rd wettest since 2007. So I guess in terms of recent trends, even rainfall has been pretty normal!

How strange Andy. According to the BBC, it has been the wettest April to June period since records began. Are you sure you don't live where Village lives?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-18653274