[Ed.]

Aye up..some midweek convective shenanigens is looking pretty likely now, possibly breaking the monotony for TS lovers? - hope it isn't too early to get the ball rolling! nonetheless, temps are also responding accordingly, so as is always the case, let's wait and see..

NB: Outlook/Report Threads etc., are just for that pretty please.. and to a busy photo-section happy hunting

[Lightningfox92]

Metoffice mentioned possible thundery rain in the southwest.

[Tony Sales]

Wednesday also is looking quite decent for thundery showers along the east coast. Thursday, things seem to be getting going from 5AM! Looks as if the far southeast might miss out, more of the Midlands should see the brunt of things, then NE'wards during the evening

[staffsstormspotter]

Thursday is looking interesting in particular. Although its still a bit far out initial estimates are showing 2k j/kg CAPE and -7,-8 LI from the SE to the NW with the main area of interest around the south midlands.

I'm starting to make plans for my first 2012 UK storm chase for Thursday. Let's hope everything keeps together.

Chris

[Andy Mayhew]

staffsstormspotter, on 25 June 2012 - 12:18, said:

Thursday is looking interesting in particular. Although its still a bit far out initial estimates are showing 2k j/kg CAPE and -7,-8 LI from the SE to the NW with the main area of interest around the south midlands.

That usually means storms developing around here and becoming electrified as they move away northeastward - so if I'm lucky I might catch a crack of thunder off one before it goes off to turn into a raging multicell over Leicestershire .....

[PJB]

Both the GFS and ECMWF 00Z Runs produced some very heavy storms over parts of E and NE ENgland and over the nr continent. The highest Theta -W Plume values only briefly clips the E and SE of the UK and the upper trough never directly engages, but both models suggest a minor shortwave will initially move NE on Thurs ahead of the main trough and force storms to be triggered. E and NE England seem best placed atm, as well as some lightning shows off the coast of Essex, Suffolk and Kent.

[chrisips]

Cheers Paul, maybe a trip to the seaside for me on Thursday then

[shamus1956]

Andy Mayhew, on 25 June 2012 - 13:30, said:

That usually means storms developing around here and becoming electrified as they move away northeastward - so if I'm lucky I might catch a crack of thunder off one before it goes off to turn into a raging multicell over Leicestershire .....

Yeh Yeh Yeh

[Tony Sales]

So im presuming Northumberland could be a prime spot for thursday evening?

[Vince Coombes]

Andy Mayhew, on 25 June 2012 - 13:30, said:

That usually means storms developing around here and becoming electrified as they move away northeastward - so if I'm lucky I might catch a crack of thunder off one before it goes off to turn into a raging multicell over Leicestershire .....

tell me about it , whats the betting they either give the usual suspects a good time , (low countries) or Lincolnshire and the NE get the fun , which given the last decade or so seems to be the norm, yet the SE (last time i looked was nearest the continent !!!!) gets jack all ..........incredible and comical

[staffsstormspotter]

Tony Sales, on 25 June 2012 - 13:58, said:

So im presuming Northumberland could be a prime spot for thursday evening?

The 06z pushes things east a bit so anywhere up the east coast in the later afternoon early evening I would say. Still a bit far out to start getting excited though

Chris

[staffsstormspotter]

Vince Coombes, on 25 June 2012 - 14:00, said:

tell me about it , whats the betting they either give the usual suspects a good time , (low countries) or Lincolnshire and the NE get the fun , which given the last decade or so seems to be the norm, yet the SE (last time i looked was nearest the continent !!!!) gets jack all ..........incredible and comical

The 06z on netweather makes the SE look at prime spot actually. Anywhwere along the south coast from Brighton eastwards for the afternoon. Need to wait another 24 hours before making any plans though.

Chris

[Ben Taylor]

Looking at the MetO charts and CAPE values for Wednesday it appears to be an unstable warm front moving north. I am assuming this will mean convection is likely to be high based and above the boundary layer?

Pre-frontal wave on Thursday certainly looking to be good. Here's hoping that you all get the storms you've been waiting for!

[Lightning Hunter]

Looking good for northern areas Thursday on forecasts - no mention of anything further south yet, just some drizzly rain tomorrow and Friday, otherwise settled.

[Wheels]

staffsstormspotter, on 25 June 2012 - 14:30, said:

The 06z pushes things east a bit so anywhere up the east coast in the later afternoon early evening I would say. Still a bit far out to start getting excited though

Chris

Why do we always seem to get missed

[staffsstormspotter]

Wheels, on 25 June 2012 - 14:54, said:

Why do we always seem to get missed

Yeah thats a good question. Possible answers might include: too far from the coast (about as far as you can get in the UK); The Cheshire Gap; too far from Birmingham for UHI influence.

Chris

[Chris Alder]

Nothing going to happen down here by the looks of things From other points of view I'll be interested to see how this is modelled and whether or not GFS especially takes the plume too far west which it has done many times in the past few summers.

[PullenUK]

all that chat above.... well can someone explain why on Ashford I'm seeing two different sets of the darkness stormy looking clouds for ages? It seems not to be moving, very stormy looking.

[Pete Roberts]

staffsstormspotter, on 25 June 2012 - 15:20, said:

The Cheshire Gap; too far from Birmingham for UHI influence.

Chris

But close enough to the Merseyside and Greater Manchester conurbation.

Pete

[owen3371]

We had a great show of lightning last monday in northern ireland(lough foyle co;derry)(18th) with several c-g,s one of which i caught on camera,the storm moved to within 1 mile of me so i left for my own safety!