[Ed.]

Certainly a muggier feel tonight, hardly a breath of wind..almost feels like a storm is imminent any min now! ok, shall hold my horses until mid-week at least ;-)

[Christopher]

staffsstormspotter, on 25 June 2012 - 12:18, said:

Thursday is looking interesting in particular. Although its still a bit far out initial estimates are showing 2k j/kg CAPE and -7,-8 LI from the SE to the NW with the main area of interest around the south midlands.

I'm starting to make plans for my first 2012 UK storm chase for Thursday. Let's hope everything keeps together.

Chris

On the 00z run (o6z won't load for me yet) there didn't seem to be very high values. France is definitely in the firing line with huge amounts of Cape available and lifted index of -8 or -9. The UK however has Cape of around 800 to 1000 j/kg with lifted indexes of maybe -3 or -4.

Having said that, we had thunderstorms the other day with relatively low Cape values. Maybe a trough will develop as Paul suggested.

[staffsstormspotter]

Harry Dock Mills, on 26 June 2012 - 09:35, said:

On the 00z run (o6z won't load for me yet) there didn't seem to be very high values. France is definitely in the firing line with huge amounts of Cape available and lifted index of -8 or -9. The UK however has Cape of around 800 to 1000 j/kg with lifted indexes of maybe -3 or -4.

Having said that, we had thunderstorms the other day with relatively low Cape values. Maybe a trough will develop as Paul suggested.

The 06z run is working now and its still showing an area of increased CAPE London-Norwich-Nottingham-South Birmingham; around 1300j/kg and -4 LI. Dewpoints in the same area of around 20C with max temps at 24C so moist enough. Corresponding area of PVA and glaciation at ~600hPa could lead to some high topped cells. Moderate shear exists as well so wouldnt be surprised to see thunderstorms and some hail.

Chris

This post has been edited by staffsstormspotter: 26 June 2012 - 10:20

[Pete Roberts]

The sky to my west is very threatening, looking at the rain radar a large area of showers is developing as they cross N. Wales and approach the Cheshire Plain.

Pete

[Mike Adams]

To me, it looks increasingly like it will be South Midlands to Northern England, plus coastal regions of the South East, that will get at least moderate thunderstorms on Thursday early evening until midnight. Although even in South Eastern coastal regions, I think it may be more "viewing" them out to sea, rather than overhead storms. Just my opinion, looking at things.

This post has been edited by Mike Adams: 26 June 2012 - 11:24

[Lightningfox92]

Is there any chance for storm for me this week at all? I do t think there is but it would be good if I had a chance.

[Mike Adams]

Lightningfox92, on 26 June 2012 - 11:54, said:

Is there any chance for storm for me this week at all? I do t think there is but it would be good if I had a chance.

You have a reasonable chance, between late morning and late afternoon on Thursday.

This post has been edited by Mike Adams: 26 June 2012 - 12:12

[ChaserUK]

Oh I am liking 1400 j/kg and LI of -5 here tomorrow evening

[Lightningfox92]

Mike Adams, on 26 June 2012 - 12:11, said:

You have a reasonable chance, between late morning and late afternoon on Thursday.

Thanks mate I will keep that in mind, cheers

[Ed.]

ChaserUK, on 26 June 2012 - 12:39, said:

Oh I am liking 1400 j/kg and LI of -5 here tomorrow evening

Yes indeedy, the thought did cross my mind..CI are in a pretty favourable position atm,- do believe you caught a decent show not many moons ago down there? as per usual some parts of mainland Europe are at risk of being clobbered!

Anyway, good-luck to all TS lovers everywhere, we sure need a break from the present onslaught, even if the rain decides to continue apres storms, a few rumbles won't hurt..

[Vince Coombes]

im sure the weatherman said drizzly rain here today , i would say he was very wrong !!! its teeming down here ,quite convective rain if you ask me

aylesbury
bucks

[Martyn Wells]

staffsstormspotter, on 26 June 2012 - 10:12, said:

The 06z run is working now and its still showing an area of increased CAPE London-Norwich-Nottingham-South Birmingham; around 1300j/kg and -4 LI. Dewpoints in the same area of around 20C with max temps at 24C so moist enough. Corresponding area of PVA and glaciation at ~600hPa could lead to some high topped cells. Moderate shear exists as well so wouldnt be surprised to see thunderstorms and some hail.

Chris

Yes, spotted that. Of concern must be the GFS forecast of DPs...20c may not come to fruition, as GFS typical over forecasts by 1-2c...which in turn will remove a lot of the sauce from the CAPE available. i guess the devil now is all in future model details as to where, and when.

[bensainsbury]

Any chance of Bristol getting on thunderstorm tomorrow and Thursday?

[RichC]

I see the CAPE/Li is pretty high over the channel Thursday morning 0300 onwards and just nudges south of Devon before bypassing the SW completely up to the midlands and around Salisbury Plain to the north east.

Devon has big fat "NO" written all over it!

[Lightningfox92]

RichC, on 26 June 2012 - 19:34, said:

I see the CAPE/Li is pretty high over the channel Thursday morning 0300 onwards and just nudges south of Devon before bypassing the SW completely up to the midlands and around Salisbury Plain to the north east.

Devon has big fat "NO" written all over it!

As usual!!!

[RichC]

ESTOFEX issues a level 1 for high RF, hail and wind for much of the western UK tomorrow with the high probability of large MCS moving its up. I can see this mainly being east of the Blackdowns, perhaps Dorset/Somerset/Hampshire and moving up then into the midlands.

[Ian Williams]

GFS and Hirlam are both keen on some heavy convection over SW England tomorrow night, ECM and UKMO are not having it, and NAE is toying with it. In Plymouth the last couple of days its been foggy and mizzly. so i am hoping tomorrow we can burn that off to allow some decent surface heating, which will aid any potential tomorrow night, but my thoughts are it is likely to (If it happens) to be east of Dartmoor, so pretty much in line with your thinking Rich. At least theres now a chance for SW England too, (for now anyway)

[skanky]

Interesting as ecmwf and ukmo initialise hirlam and nae, respectively.

[Chris Alder]

Personally I expect to see little else than some rain here tomorrow, be very surprised if there is anything sparky!

[RichC]

Totally overcast here so this needs to disappear if any surface convection is to kick off today, atleast anyway.
If it's reasonable distance wise i might drive out for a bit tonight but not to far.
I'm totally jealous of the parameters for the midlands tomorrow... it's something only us down here can wish for.