[Uskys]

Friday 6th July

Slack winds across a lot of England/Wales together with some energy. Could it be a recipe for disaster?

I don't know, but just don't like the look of it... though I'm probably wrong.

Over the last 2 centuries the really damaging rainfall hereabouts has almost exclusively fell in July with August next.

Looking at the windflow forecast there seems to be little to move anything on if it materializes.

GFS wind for 15z tomorrow along with mlcape:

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[RichC]

Was looking at Friday (and Sunday) last night and the CAPE is pretty good (500-750j/kg) with -3Li for Friday in a period between Noon and 1800hrs across the Midlands and SW of England. Might be in for some rather heavy downpours.
There is a nice plume of warm air coming in from the continent to the south east and east also.

[Mike Adams]

Thought it would be a good idea to dedicate a thread to this...............

This post has been edited by Mike Adams: 05 July 2012 - 09:28

[Mike Adams]

What do you think the chances are, of a few storms being spawned from the main rain band, and affecting a wider area? As at the moment it looks like it is just East Anglia northwards, missing the South East?

[RichC]

Today, i would imagine the area looks to be from Essex up to Yorkshire. The main area for CAPE is across that region.
But CB's are already cropping up in Devon but not lasting very long. It is already 20°C in the M4 Corridor so home growns might pop up.

Tomorrow, i see the area to be Devon up to East Anglia.

[Mike Adams]

I've seen it called a plume, but is that strictly true with this?

[RichC]

I see warmer humid air coming in from the South today but then shifting and coming in from the South East and East for Tomorrow.
So the development may come up from Belgium/Netherlands and into East Anglia/Essex tomorrow, if not, home growns in that area up to perhaps North Yorkshire.

[mam35]

Its very warm in the Midlands today (Leicestershire), we actually have some sun for a change. The outlook for Friday-Sunday looks very unsettled from what I can tell (although im still learning)

[Christopher]

Certainly a lot of rain around tomorrow. Could stall over us for quite a while

GFS has rain totals across the north midlands and north Wales of around 50mm. NAE is going for around 70mm.

Not sure how much CAPE there will be tomorrow - I can't imagine the dewpoints will be very high tomorrow with cloud cover.

Not sure if this is a plume as such - I can't really see any moist air being drawn up.

Surface winds are interesting tomorrow. There are convergence type winds across the midlands that develop around noon, which slowly spread northwards. Might be the odd funnel cloud or 2 around.

[Bazmundo]

Luton, Stansted, Nottingham and Birmingham TAFs are going for thunder during the early hours.

[mam35]

Looking at the radar (I am still learning) the Midlands have rain for most of the coming weekend?,and looking at the (probable) long term forecast, for the most part of the next week?? Or am I way off?

[Andy Mayhew]

mam35, on 05 July 2012 - 15:23, said:

Looking at the radar (I am still learning) the Midlands have rain for most of the coming weekend?,and looking at the (probable) long term forecast, for the most part of the next week?? Or am I way off?

This thread's for observations only - so will move this to the relevant chat thread shortly. But yes, after the more persistent rain overnight and tomorrow, it's likely the Midlands will see further showers over the weekend, some heavy and thundery. More showers next week though probably lighter and more scattered in these parts.

(and I assume you mean looking at the rainfall prediction charts - GFS etc - rather than the radar which, of course, only shows current rain )

[Howard Kirby]

I'm getting July 20th 2007 deja vous from looking at the model output regarding tomorrow. Perhaps not as much rain, but the movement and development not too dissimilar iirc.

[Andy Mayhew]

Yes, me too. The rain will be further north, so not such a cncern here (although some of that water will find it's way into the Avon) but it does look worringly similar.

[Uskys]

A few more charts from GFS 12z

The first two are for 09z tomorrow , the rest are for 15z

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[d.patterson]

Looking at current radar and Doppler outputs, there are two cells approaching the coast of Felixstowe and Dover, both carrying I would assume significant power, rain and thunder. The behaviour of both cells looks like they could converge and form one large storm driving up the corridor of the country. What's peoples views on this please?

[Christopher]

Howard Kirby, on 05 July 2012 - 18:02, said:

I'm getting July 20th 2007 deja vous from looking at the model output regarding tomorrow. Perhaps not as much rain, but the movement and development not too dissimilar iirc.

I did use the word 'stall' in my earlier post. I nearly said quasi stationary, at risk of tempting fate, but wasn't sure if this was like 2007. But then, was 2007 really predicted?

I am quite interested in the convergence winds that slowly progress northwards tomorrow. Must be good for a tornado I reckon, or at least a funnel cloud ( I am going for anywhere from the Wash to north Wales).

I notice that on the 12z model runs, both NAE and GFS have backed off on the rainfall accumulations however..

[Andy Mayhew]

d.patterson, on 05 July 2012 - 19:11, said:

Looking at current radar and Doppler outputs, there are two cells approaching the coast of Felixstowe and Dover, both carrying I would assume significant power, rain and thunder. The behaviour of both cells looks like they could converge and form one large storm driving up the corridor of the country. What's peoples views on this please?

I assume what you are looking at is the first indications of the expected rain on the front that'll be spreading northwest overnight. Not currently very heavy and in no way electricfied.

[Flatlander]

It isn't July 2007 deja-vu I'm getting. It is June 2007.

I think it was the 15th June that the first lot of rain arrived (in thundery downpours, like this effort) and caused flooding in some places. The Don was 2 inches from flooding Doncaster then. The really bad thing happened on the 25th.

Any stationary feeds from the E coast predicted for a week or so's time?

This post has been edited by Tim Prosser: 05 July 2012 - 20:09

[John Robert Mellor]

Christoefur, on 05 July 2012 - 19:17, said:

........... But then, was 2007 really predicted?

I believe it was....I was moving around this time and to my angst had to pack my AWS on the 18th July fully aware of the potential for some persistent and at times heavy rain. Needless to say, it arrived on the day I was moving stuff, including the boxed up AWS, so never recorded the event!! (hits head against wall)

This post has been edited by John Robert Mellor: 05 July 2012 - 20:17