Heavy Rain; Thurs - Sat 5th-7th July Chat Thread
Posted 05 July 2012 - 08:59
Slack winds across a lot of England/Wales together with some energy. Could it be a recipe for disaster?
I don't know, but just don't like the look of it... though I'm probably wrong.
Over the last 2 centuries the really damaging rainfall hereabouts has almost exclusively fell in July with August next.
Looking at the windflow forecast there seems to be little to move anything on if it materializes.
GFS wind for 15z tomorrow along with mlcape:
Posted 05 July 2012 - 09:06
There is a nice plume of warm air coming in from the continent to the south east and east also.
Posted 05 July 2012 - 09:45
But CB's are already cropping up in Devon but not lasting very long. It is already 20°C in the M4 Corridor so home growns might pop up.
Tomorrow, i see the area to be Devon up to East Anglia.
Posted 05 July 2012 - 10:50
So the development may come up from Belgium/Netherlands and into East Anglia/Essex tomorrow, if not, home growns in that area up to perhaps North Yorkshire.
Posted 05 July 2012 - 13:25
GFS has rain totals across the north midlands and north Wales of around 50mm. NAE is going for around 70mm.
Not sure how much CAPE there will be tomorrow - I can't imagine the dewpoints will be very high tomorrow with cloud cover.
Not sure if this is a plume as such - I can't really see any moist air being drawn up.
Surface winds are interesting tomorrow. There are convergence type winds across the midlands that develop around noon, which slowly spread northwards. Might be the odd funnel cloud or 2 around.
Posted 05 July 2012 - 15:30
This thread's for observations only - so will move this to the relevant chat thread shortly. But yes, after the more persistent rain overnight and tomorrow, it's likely the Midlands will see further showers over the weekend, some heavy and thundery. More showers next week though probably lighter and more scattered in these parts.
(and I assume you mean looking at the rainfall prediction charts - GFS etc - rather than the radar which, of course, only shows current rain )
Posted 05 July 2012 - 19:11
Posted 05 July 2012 - 19:17
I did use the word 'stall' in my earlier post. I nearly said quasi stationary, at risk of tempting fate, but wasn't sure if this was like 2007. But then, was 2007 really predicted?
I am quite interested in the convergence winds that slowly progress northwards tomorrow. Must be good for a tornado I reckon, or at least a funnel cloud ( I am going for anywhere from the Wash to north Wales).
I notice that on the 12z model runs, both NAE and GFS have backed off on the rainfall accumulations however..
Posted 05 July 2012 - 19:31
I assume what you are looking at is the first indications of the expected rain on the front that'll be spreading northwest overnight. Not currently very heavy and in no way electricfied.
Posted 05 July 2012 - 20:08
I think it was the 15th June that the first lot of rain arrived (in thundery downpours, like this effort) and caused flooding in some places. The Don was 2 inches from flooding Doncaster then. The really bad thing happened on the 25th.
Any stationary feeds from the E coast predicted for a week or so's time?
This post has been edited by Tim Prosser: 05 July 2012 - 20:09
Posted 05 July 2012 - 20:11
I believe it was....I was moving around this time and to my angst had to pack my AWS on the 18th July fully aware of the potential for some persistent and at times heavy rain. Needless to say, it arrived on the day I was moving stuff, including the boxed up AWS, so never recorded the event!! (hits head against wall)
This post has been edited by John Robert Mellor: 05 July 2012 - 20:17