[Ian Williams]

http://weather.yahoo...cnlwYWdl;_ylv=3

[Dave K]

The Aussie BOM is a good site to monitor for news on this, with Australia being directly affected by El Niño.

Quote

Climate indicators continue to show a shift towards El Niño, in line with most model predictions. Eastern and central tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures have continued to warm over the past fortnight, while trade winds have remained weaker than normal. Likewise, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has become more strongly negative over the past month.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Dave K]

[Dave K]

This update from 31st July, another update is due in the next few days.

Quote

Most climate indicators in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain at values near the threshold of an El Niño event. Although indicators such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and trade winds are less El Niño-like than they were a month ago, ocean surface temperatures continue to show a pattern, and in some places values, typical of the development stage of an El Niño. Climate models suggest weak El Niño conditions are likely to be reached some time in late winter or spring. No climate models suggest a return to La Niña conditions.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

[Dave K]

There seems to be a lot more doubt now about the formation of an El Niño by the end of the year after a notable cooling of SSTs in the last fortnight. Pretty much ENSO neutral at the moment.

http://www.wundergro...l?entrynum=2250

and http://www.cpc.ncep....s-fcsts-web.pdf

[Dave K]

The predicted - weak - El Niño never came to be, and still the current state is ENSO neutral

Quote

...expert opinion suggest that the likelihood of El Niño or La Niña conditions developing during the first half of 2013 is low, and that neutral conditions are likely to be maintained through the boreal spring.

From July to October 2012, sea surface temperatures increased to a borderline El Niño level, but the atmospheric characteristics of El Niño failed to develop and the ocean-atmosphere
system as a whole remained in a neutral state. Since November the tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled, and although the first two months of 2013 showed patterns of ocean temperatures that approached borderline La Niña levels, and cloudiness and trade winds that also leaned towards La Niña conditions, the tendency has been weak and the state of the ocean-atmosphere system as a whole continued to be neutral.

http://www.wmo.int/p...nts/ENSO-EN.pdf

[ldavidcooke]

Hey Dave,

Now that the unusual Low that had plagued the SE N. Pacific seems to have moved off, the Eastern Pacific off the western Central American coast appears to be re-warming. The ITCZ continues to expand the West African heat across the southern N. Atlantic, spilling out over the Eastern Pacific. Though, the PDO continues to suggest La Nina conditions, with a large cold pool of SSTs off the Western N. American continent, there is a strong warming Anomolie sitting off the Chinese coast. If the Walker circulation were to breakdown this warm pool of water would rapidly fill to the East and likely shift the PDO positive.

Part of the confounding influence is the cold pool in the Southern Pacific. Similar to 2003 we again have the bi-polar/mirror or neutral conditions between the N. and S. Pacific. The main difference is the atmospheric conditions remain in the La Nina phase, as opposed to the 2003 El Nino.

The conditions do point to the potential for a phase shift; however, as in the past 10 years the overwhelming atmospheric circulation of a far North Sub-Tropical Jet Stream and a wildly meandering Polar Jet Stream suggests, there will not be a phase change before June. (A strong El Nino SST pattern would be required to outlast the anti-El Nino influence of the Southern Hemispheric Winter.) If we see another Summer like last or a similar atmospheric heat dump towards the North Pole like in the 2004-2005 transition, we could expect a phase shift as early as Spring 2014. Though it is more likely going to have to wait till 2015 to see the ENSO phase change.

The March position of the Sub-Tropical Jet across the southern N. American region in the Feb.-Apr. timeframe will be one of the better atmospheric indicators. Also, the satellite water vapor images should suggest a very good optical depth below 30 deg. N down to near 10 deg. N. If you watch the daily temperatures in the US SW and you daily see 90F plus (32C+) by the end of Mar. to early Apr., its time to batten the hatches and fill the water barrels...

PS: 2014 maybe a possibility, Tucson, AZ today 91F, tomorrow 92F, (though the highs are mid-80s the next 5 days). Should be an interesting watch...