Slight Risk of Scattered Thundery Showers UK & Ireland Sun 29th July 2012
Confidence Level; Medium
A fairly low risk outlook with regards to severity, though certainly worth an early heads up for any would be chaser!
Weak surface low over Scotland remains quasi stationary throughout period. Occlusion and some surface troughing expected to initiate a broad rash of scattered convection from quite early on in the day. Some showers could well become thundery as surface heating steepens low level lapse rates. Relatively deep short wave upper trough overspreads much of UK and Ireland generating upper lift. Limited surface moisture would tend to suggest quite an isolated scattering of showers with many parts staying completely dry. A relatively weakly sheared environment with straight winds likely at all levels. Though ATM the WRF model is picking up on a line of convergence along the South Downs.
So all in all too early to be specific about favourable regions. Though worth noting that the expected reduced surface humidity values will likely develop clear glaciated congestus with classic charcoal underbellies which could be particularly photogenic. Cloud tops expected to reach 350mb with very little CIN. So a few classic anvils should be able to develop later in the day on the larger convective cloud.
PS. Being Sunday there may be some potential for chasers to arrange a meet up at certain points. If the outlook remains promising I'll start a separate chase thread where members at favourable locations can PM their mobile numbers to each other!
This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 28 July 2012 - 09:33