Convective Chat Thursday 2nd August 2012 onwards.
Posted 01 August 2012 - 09:26
Likely to bring some descent convection for several days. Old occlusion debris likely to add to convergence and moisture, so some sig rainfall likely locally, particularly where 'train echoing' of the showers occurs. (BWE).
Later as low becomes more flabby, increasing risk of funnel cloud development, particularly across central areas.
A thread for thoughts.
Posted 01 August 2012 - 10:38
Thanks for the heads up Nigel, you only pardon the expression "get the ball rolling.." if there's a good chance it'll pay off.Years of experience, wx watching and a good eye for detail comes into place
This post has been edited by Ed.: 01 August 2012 - 10:39
Posted 01 August 2012 - 19:32
Quite a nasty line of showers pushed through this a'noon..surprised there were no sferics tbh, with vis reduced and local flooding plus alot of surface spray.Just a wee taster of things to come, perhaps? Cbs looked pretty good from a distant too, as they trundled E/NE.
Posted 02 August 2012 - 13:43
Possible 'wave' on the convergence line. This can concentrate convection into a small area and locally increase the helicity of the storm. If the storm can organise itself, such that the warm air can enter from the southeast, then there is a possibility.
Further waves developing on convergence line upwind across Devon and Cornwall, which also seem to be locally organising and intensifying convection.
Posted 02 August 2012 - 16:56
Presumably the BWE (Nigel?)
Posted 02 August 2012 - 18:51
Presumably the BWE (Nigel?)
That's the one Stuart. A reasonable example of.
Posted 02 August 2012 - 19:44
Posted 02 August 2012 - 21:21
This post has been edited by Ed.: 02 August 2012 - 21:23
Posted 02 August 2012 - 21:47
I'm not sure where that total came from: 47mm was recorded at nearby South Horrington: http://www.mendipwea...co.uk/live.html.
Having said that, these downpours were very localised and a mile or two either way could have made a big difference in the raingauge.
Posted 02 August 2012 - 22:22
Caught sight of a flash from this one, with a reasonable thump of thunder. It had one of the best scuddy cloud bases I've seen this year (in the UK) toward the rear and a decent part shelf cloud on the forward right side, but with the best of it passing south of Stoke centre our office was in the core for the most part. No hail, and didn't hear anywhere near as much thunder as the sflocs suggest (should prob get my ears tested).
Posted 02 August 2012 - 23:14
Posted 03 August 2012 - 20:28
Air expected to be more unstable on Saturday than on Friday,
Over southern and southwestern areas, still enough flow for 'train echoing' showers to bring locally sig rainfall, though I would like to see the flow a little more veered for a classic SW peninsular convergence line.
Funnel cloud risk greatest across northwest England where flow is expected to be very slack, but with the neccesary curvature in the isobaric pattern to instill weak helicity into slow moving showers or storms.