[Nigel Bolton]

Deep, but slowly filling area of low pressure expected to meander across the UK in the next few days.

Likely to bring some descent convection for several days. Old occlusion debris likely to add to convergence and moisture, so some sig rainfall likely locally, particularly where 'train echoing' of the showers occurs. (BWE).

Later as low becomes more flabby, increasing risk of funnel cloud development, particularly across central areas.

A thread for thoughts.

N.

[Bazmundo]

Northern Ireland looks best for full height Cb's on Fri, closer to the centre and what upper cold air there is; the rest looks very conditional on cloud cover.

[Ed.]

Week-end potential certainly pretty good atm (nice timing too..) - Cape/Li charts look quite tasty for Wales/Mids and then have a guess?...NE/East Anglia, the new UK equivalent of The Great Plains

Thanks for the heads up Nigel, you only pardon the expression "get the ball rolling.." if there's a good chance it'll pay off.Years of experience, wx watching and a good eye for detail comes into place

This post has been edited by Ed.: 01 August 2012 - 10:39

[Ed.]

*bump*

Quite a nasty line of showers pushed through this a'noon..surprised there were no sferics tbh, with vis reduced and local flooding plus alot of surface spray.Just a wee taster of things to come, perhaps? Cbs looked pretty good from a distant too, as they trundled E/NE.

[Ed.]

Radar gradually beginning to reflect todays potential - once again, we'll get a few hefty bursts before any showers become electrified over the E Mids and beyond lol..sceptical, mois ;-)

We'll see.

[Bazmundo]

Someone in Sutton Coldfield just tweeted "outside looks like a tornado..." - not sure what to infer from that though, rotating/untidy?

[Nigel Bolton]

Bazmundo, on 02 August 2012 - 13:27, said:

Someone in Sutton Coldfield just tweeted "outside looks like a tornado..." - not sure what to infer from that though, rotating/untidy?

Possible 'wave' on the convergence line. This can concentrate convection into a small area and locally increase the helicity of the storm. If the storm can organise itself, such that the warm air can enter from the southeast, then there is a possibility.

Further waves developing on convergence line upwind across Devon and Cornwall, which also seem to be locally organising and intensifying convection.

N.

[Nigel Bolton]

Heavy shower developing to my southwest now. Some good inflow fingers on its southeastern side.

N.

[PJB]

Nasty Shower train now over the SW - Stemming from N cornwall.

[Stuart Dapp]

A train of showers crossing Taunton since mid-morning, comprising of some extremely heavy but very brief bursts of rain (lasting literally a few seconds!) interspersed with longer periods of much steadier rain.

Presumably the BWE (Nigel?)

[Nigel Bolton]

Stuart Dapp, on 02 August 2012 - 16:56, said:

A train of showers crossing Taunton since mid-morning, comprising of some extremely heavy but very brief bursts of rain (lasting literally a few seconds!) interspersed with longer periods of much steadier rain.

Presumably the BWE (Nigel?)

That's the one Stuart. A reasonable example of.

N.

[Stuart Dapp]

Nigel Bolton, on 02 August 2012 - 18:51, said:

That's the one Stuart. A reasonable example of.

N.

Thanks Nigel. Not used to summertime convection having lived in Bournemouth for 30 years with its sea breezes!

Great to be back in my home patch though

[Ed.]

Any TS and shower activity over Stoke/N Staffs area - circa 20.00hrs this eve, looked pretty awesome from a distance, here in sunny Shrops..amazing backlit Cbs to end the day, kit thankfully charged up and ready to go..

[Ed.]

Just to add, somewhere between Stoke and Cheadle got absolutely hammered at 20.15 or thereabouts..one humdinger of a Cb/Thunderhead just went into overdrive, toward my N/NE glaciating like i've seldom seen, boy it was solid!

This post has been edited by Ed.: 02 August 2012 - 21:23

[StephenS]

Flash flooding in Wells, Somerset after 80mm of rain:

http://www.thisissom...tail/story.html

I'm not sure where that total came from: 47mm was recorded at nearby South Horrington: http://www.mendipwea...co.uk/live.html.

Having said that, these downpours were very localised and a mile or two either way could have made a big difference in the raingauge.

[Bazmundo]

Ed., on 02 August 2012 - 21:21, said:

Just to add, somewhere between Stoke and Cheadle got absolutely hammered at 20.15 or thereabouts..one humdinger of a Cb/Thunderhead just went into overdrive, toward my N/NE glaciating like i've seldom seen, boy it was solid!

Caught sight of a flash from this one, with a reasonable thump of thunder. It had one of the best scuddy cloud bases I've seen this year (in the UK) toward the rear and a decent part shelf cloud on the forward right side, but with the best of it passing south of Stoke centre our office was in the core for the most part. No hail, and didn't hear anywhere near as much thunder as the sflocs suggest (should prob get my ears tested).

[Ed.]

It was a complete beastie wasen't it? nicely lit up later by the setting sun and as a rough guesstimate, i must've been some 35-40 miles away as the crow flies to the S/SW, snap snapping away - surprised by the lack of reports as yet, unless there have been a few power cuts! ok erm hope not,..apparently there's more to come, Cb haters best hideaway and duck for a few days duck

[Nigel Bolton]

Low is continuing to fill as it moves southeastwards towards southwest England.

Air expected to be more unstable on Saturday than on Friday,

Over southern and southwestern areas, still enough flow for 'train echoing' showers to bring locally sig rainfall, though I would like to see the flow a little more veered for a classic SW peninsular convergence line.

Funnel cloud risk greatest across northwest England where flow is expected to be very slack, but with the neccesary curvature in the isobaric pattern to instill weak helicity into slow moving showers or storms.

N.

[Ed.]

Nice batch of showers showing on radar around Knighton, Marches zone - seems to heading towards Shrewsbury atm.No doubt things shall kick off accordingly in the next few hours or so.

[Ed.]

Wrexham area next and some place called Dalmellington? getting a fair pasting...

Estofex level 1 for UK/Eire too, weak tornadoes possible in more risk prone areas.

This post has been edited by Ed.: 04 August 2012 - 11:22