[Strider]

Dave W, on 24 August 2012 - 10:56, said:

Was about to say its not looking too bad for the SE and east.. ! Highs of about 20-22C with mainly dry conditions here until Thursday and ok on Friday too..

Not so great for the rest of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland though..!

ECM still shows hope of more settled weather into early Sept but GFS 06z op has a flatter jet pushing through another Atlantic low keep things pretty dire tbh

[nickw1]

Strider, on 24 August 2012 - 11:57, said:

Not so great for the rest of England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland though..!

ECM still shows hope of more settled weather into early Sept but GFS 06z op has a flatter jet pushing through another Atlantic low keep things pretty dire tbh

I'm slightly puzzled at some Met Office predictions for next week here in the south TBH.

For example, only 19c and drizzle for London on Monday despite what looks like a weak warm front moving north during the day with what looks like air moving N from France behind it - my feeling would have been more like 24c or so and mid-level Ac cloud. Monday doesn't look that unsettled away from the far W according to the charts, so I'm surprised such a dire day is predicted even in the far SE. Sorry to be Mr Grumpy, but... bl**dy 2012 Bank Holidays, a complete waste of time... weather's always dire and you can't even get into work to do something useful!

Also it goes for "blustery" showers on Tuesday despite what looks like light winds - I'd have again expected Tuesday to be quite a pleasant day, maybe the odd shower yes but quite warm. Then it says the low later in the week will chiefly affect the south while the models seem to indicate it'll be worse farther north. Puzzled.

Either way it looks like the last 8 days of this month will, sadly, push August into the "poor" category along with June and July here, though maybe there's more hope for September. The latest Met Office long term prediction does back up the chance of settled September weather. It would be incredible if each of the six lightest months was dominated by unsettled weather... I cannot recall such a year occurring in my lifetime, the often-mentioned 1980 had a much better spring and 1985 was saved by September.

Nick

This post has been edited by nickw1: 24 August 2012 - 20:13

[Stuart Dapp]

nickw1, on 24 August 2012 - 20:09, said:

1985 was saved by September.

Nick

I'm very much hoping for a repeat of the 1985 autumn this year. My confidence is inspired by Ian McCaskill who, in one late evening forecast in early September '85, mentioned there was "no sign of an Indian summer". High pressure became firmly established over S England within days!

Exactly 10 years later Michael Fish predicted no rain in sight for at least the first half of September 1995, following the exceptionally hot, dry August.
Within days much of the UK was deluged!

So maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel for those of us fed up with this seemingly never ending unsettled spell. My fingers are firmly crossed for an anticyclonic autumn!

[Dave W]

Looking very dry and quite settled in SW and south in Sept week 1 now , less so further north.. looks notably wet here too in last week of August

[Dave W]

Looking at models the weather/patterning is looking pretty settled now for Sept week 1 and maybe even a little longer.. high pressure quite dominant in the period
Even the coming week looks half decent for the south & SE now acc to GFs runs this am

[nickw1]

Stuart Dapp, on 25 August 2012 - 07:57, said:

I'm very much hoping for a repeat of the 1985 autumn this year. My confidence is inspired by Ian McCaskill who, in one late evening forecast in early September '85, mentioned there was "no sign of an Indian summer". High pressure became firmly established over S England within days!

Exactly 10 years later Michael Fish predicted no rain in sight for at least the first half of September 1995, following the exceptionally hot, dry August.
Within days much of the UK was deluged!

So maybe there is light at the end of the tunnel for those of us fed up with this seemingly never ending unsettled spell. My fingers are firmly crossed for an anticyclonic autumn!

1985 was possibly the most interesting autumn of my lifetime, following a dreary summer. Sadly I don't remember its outstanding features: the October 1 heatwave and the November snow - even though I was 14 at the time, but I do remember it being a very settled season and warm in September.

I remember the 1995 long term too - around the end of August they made a rare longer-term forecast suggesting dry until the middle of September then a quite unexpected breakdown occurred from the northeast. A cold front moved NE to SW into a cloudy but stable high, leading to a short lived thunderstorm around midday on the first Saturday of the month, followed by arctic air. The first half of the month was then very wet with southerly-tracking lows but the second half was somewhat drier if I remember correctly.

[nickw1]

Dave W, on 26 August 2012 - 10:57, said:

Looking at models the weather/patterning is looking pretty settled now for Sept week 1 and maybe even a little longer.. high pressure quite dominant in the period
Even the coming week looks half decent for the south & SE now acc to GFs runs this am

Summer ends, the weather improves! This is definitely becoming a pattern. A good one though, the increased anticyclonicity of early autumn compared to summer in recent years counteracts the earlier sunsets.

The first half of September seems to be so consistently prone to anticyclonic spells that I would have little hesitation recommending it as the best time to visit the southern UK for overseas visitors.

This post has been edited by nickw1: 27 August 2012 - 08:28

[Chris Alder]

This mornings GFS 06z run is quite dreamy for the first week of September, high pressure totally dominant with warm 850s, at time approaching 15c in the south taking temperatures into the mid (possibly high) 20s pretty much nation wide. In fact if things remain the same it looks like a better spell of dry, warm and sunny weather than anything summer produced.