[Dave K]

WTPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 124.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 124.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.0N 122.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.2N 120.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.5N 119.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.8N 117.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 24.4N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 25.9N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 123.8E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.//
NNNN

[Bazmundo]

JTWC have increased the current intensity to 55kts after observing increased poleward outflow, set to peak at 70kts north of Hong Kong. Attached agency forecast tracks.

http://www.usno.navy.../wp1412prog.txt

Attached thumbnail(s)

• 

[P.K.]

Nice to see people posting on this part of the world. I'd stopped doing it as no-one else seemed interested!

WTPQ20 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1213 KAI-TAK (1213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 17.6N 123.1E POOR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 19.7N 118.6E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 161800UTC 22.1N 115.1E 140NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 171800UTC 24.0N 111.0E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Dave K]

P.K., on 14 August 2012 - 22:56, said:

Nice to see people posting on this part of the world. I'd stopped doing it as no-one else seemed interested!

Hi Peter, always interested but haven't felt that qualified to contribute!

---

NASA Sees More Rain for the Philippines from Tropical Storm Kai-Tak

An intensifying Tropical storm called Kai-Tak (locally known as Helen) is causing more rain in the Philippines as it passes over northern Luzon. The Philippines have had a very wet month with the capital of Manila experiencing massive flooding earlier this month. NASA's TRMM satellite identified where the heavy rain was falling.

Kai-tak has caused another day of warnings in the Philippines. On August 14, Public storm warning signal #1 is in effect for these provinces in Luzon: La Union, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Rest of Aurora, and Tarlac.

In addition, Public storm warning signal #2 has been posted for these Luzon provinces: the Abra and Batanes Group of Islands, Apayao, Benguet; Cagayan (including Calayan and Babuyan Group of Island), Ifugao, Ilocos South and North, Isabela, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Northern Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite flew over Kai-tak on August 13, 2012 at 2216 UTC 4:16 p.m. EDT). TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) data showed that the tropical storm was dropping extreme amounts of rainfall. TRMM PR revealed that the most intense rainfall of over 100mm/hr. (~3.9 inches) was east of the Philippines over the open waters of the Pacific Ocean. Some light to moderate rainfall from Kai-tak was shown falling on the island of Luzon.

TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) data were used in a 3-D image to show the vertical scale of the numerous powerful storms near Kai-tak's center. Some convective storms were reaching heights of about 15km (~9.3 miles).

Tropical storm Kai-tak had maximum sustained winds near 50 knots (57.5 mph/92.6 kmh). It was located about 220 nautical miles (253 miles/407 km) northeast of Manila, Philippines, near 17.4 North latitude and 123.1 East longitude. Kai-tak was moving to the southwest at 10 knots (11.5 mph/18.5 kmh) and is expected to turn to the west-northwest.

Satellite data from August 14 has shown that Kai-tak's low-level center has become more organized. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument that flies onboard NASA's Aqua satellite showed cooler cloud top temperatures (a sign of more uplift and strength in the storm).

Kai-tak is taking a track across northern Luzon and is expected to move south of Taiwan before making landfall in China.

Text Credit: Hal Pierce
SSAI/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

[Dave K]

Appears to be strengthening...

WTPN31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 19.5N 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.8N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 22.0N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS

[Dave K]

Kai-Tek now has Typhoon status. Three deaths attributed to it although rainfall over the northern Philippines was weaker than feared at first.


WTPN31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 117.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 117.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.1N 114.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS

[P.K.]

Still a 60 kt STS at 09Z. The JTWC are as official as Environment Canada are for the N Atl.

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/1213.html

[Dave K]

Thanks Peter. This info from NASA says it is a "minimal typhoon" now!

Quote

Kai-tak's maximum sustained winds are near 65 knots (75 mph/120.4 kmh) making it a minimal typhoon. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of circulation. Kai-tak's center is about 155 nautical miles (178 miles/287 km) south of Hong Kong, near 19.9 North and 113.7 East longitude. Kai-tak is moving to the west-northwest at 14 knots (16 mph/26 kmh).

http://www.nasa.gov/...12_Kai-tak.html

[ChaserUK]

Dave K, on 15 August 2012 - 08:15, said:

Hi Peter, always interested but haven't felt that qualified to contribute!

---

NASA Sees More Rain for the Philippines from Tropical Storm Kai-Tak

An intensifying Tropical storm called Kai-Tak (locally known as Helen) is causing more rain in the Philippines as it passes over northern Luzon. The Philippines have had a very wet month with the capital of Manila experiencing massive flooding earlier this month. NASA's TRMM satellite identified where the heavy rain was falling.

Kai-tak has caused another day of warnings in the Philippines. On August 14, Public storm warning signal #1 is in effect for these provinces in Luzon: La Union, Nueva Ecija, Pangasinan, Rest of Aurora, and Tarlac.

In addition, Public storm warning signal #2 has been posted for these Luzon provinces: the Abra and Batanes Group of Islands, Apayao, Benguet; Cagayan (including Calayan and Babuyan Group of Island), Ifugao, Ilocos South and North, Isabela, Kalinga, Mt. Province, Northern Aurora, Nueva Vizcaya, and Quirino.

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite flew over Kai-tak on August 13, 2012 at 2216 UTC 4:16 p.m. EDT). TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR) data showed that the tropical storm was dropping extreme amounts of rainfall. TRMM PR revealed that the most intense rainfall of over 100mm/hr. (~3.9 inches) was east of the Philippines over the open waters of the Pacific Ocean. Some light to moderate rainfall from Kai-tak was shown falling on the island of Luzon.

TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) data were used in a 3-D image to show the vertical scale of the numerous powerful storms near Kai-tak's center. Some convective storms were reaching heights of about 15km (~9.3 miles).

Tropical storm Kai-tak had maximum sustained winds near 50 knots (57.5 mph/92.6 kmh). It was located about 220 nautical miles (253 miles/407 km) northeast of Manila, Philippines, near 17.4 North latitude and 123.1 East longitude. Kai-tak was moving to the southwest at 10 knots (11.5 mph/18.5 kmh) and is expected to turn to the west-northwest.

Satellite data from August 14 has shown that Kai-tak's low-level center has become more organized. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument that flies onboard NASA's Aqua satellite showed cooler cloud top temperatures (a sign of more uplift and strength in the storm).

Kai-tak is taking a track across northern Luzon and is expected to move south of Taiwan before making landfall in China.

Text Credit: Hal Pierce
SSAI/NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.

That graphic clearly shows hot towers and interesting to see the expected strenghtening just after. I know this is old news now however!

This post has been edited by ChaserUK: 16 August 2012 - 19:06

[P.K.]

Yes but NASA have no idea what a proper ten minute standard wind average is (as being an USA agency they only use the JTWC figures) so you have to be careful with those descriptions they use!

Remains a 60kt STS at 18Z. Centre pressure 975hPa.

WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1213 KAI-TAK (1213)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 20.1N 112.7E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 210NM
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 21.7N 106.9E 75NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 181800UTC 23.2N 102.3E 140NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Dave K]

So, I'm not sure if it actually met Typhoon criteria at any point but they call it that in the full report at the URL:

Quote

Downpours with rainfall between 250 to 300 millimeters are expected to batter some parts of Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan and Yunnan in the coming two days, while regions around the Qiongzhou Strait will also see strong winds.

The CMA warned that Kai-Tak will gain strength and bring heavy rains across the northern part of China, including Qinghai, Gansu, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Hebei provinces, over the next 48 hours, offering relief from the heat that has scorched the areas in recent days.

http://www.chinadail...nt_15683873.htm

[P.K.]

Back over water now but it did reach TY status just before landfall.

http://agora.ex.nii..../201213.html.en

[Bazmundo]

Landfall with NHC-IR enhancement, courtesy CIMSS and Eosnap: