[P.K.]

Pretty strong one this. Bolaven won't be too far behind this either.

WTPQ21 RJTD 201800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1214 TEMBIN (1214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201800UTC 19.5N 125.3E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 180NM
FORECAST
24HF 211800UTC 21.9N 125.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 221800UTC 22.5N 123.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 231800UTC 22.8N 121.4E 160NM 70%
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =



Reduced size ( 28 K), click image to get full-sized image ( 172 K).

[PJB]

If the Numerical Models pan out the next Typhoon (Bolaven) will become a major Typhoon with huge equator and poleward outflow channels and a huge upper level high sat over the top of it...

[Dave K]

They both seem to have Taiwan's name written on them


2012/08/21 06:00UTC, Current Western North Pacific typhoons :

Typhoon TEMBIN (1214), Center Location 21.0N 125.4E, Movement: NNW BECOMING WNW 11KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 945 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 45m/s, Gust 55m/s, Radius of 15m/s 180km, Radius of 25m/s 50km.

Severe Tropical Storm BOLAVEN (1215), Center Location 18.4N 140.5E, Movement: WNW 14KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 980 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 28m/s, Gust 35m/s, Radius of 15m/s 120km.

[P.K.]

Models have shifted slightly for Bolaven as for a few days they'd been sending that right into Taiwan as well as a very strong typhoon. Now the ECMWF is just missing to the north before heading up the Chinese coast towards South Korea. I'll start a new thread for that nearer the time when it ramps up unless someone gets there first.

[Dave K]

At the moment just the southernmost part of Taiwan is under a weather advisory from Tembin, for rainfall >50mm in 24hours

Don't think that this image here dynamically updates so the Taiwan time stated is at 12Z I think.

[Dave K]

The entire eastern side of Taiwan now has a weather warning for extremely heavy rain

Actual Rainfall observations for 24 hours
Pingtung County Linluo Township: 101.5 mm,
Pingtung County Pingtung City: 73.5 mm.

Typhoon TEMBIN (1214), Center Location 22.5N 124.3E, Movement: WNW BECOMING WEST 6KM/HR BECOMING 9KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 955 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 40m/s, Gust 50m/s, Radius of 15m/s 180km, Radius of 25m/s 50km.

50 m/s = 97 kn

Quote

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Bolaven was 720km northwest of Guam as of 5:30pm yesterday. It was moving northwest at 14kph. Based on the path forecast by the bureau, the storm is moving in the direction of Taiwan.

Wu said that whether Tembin and Bolaven would generate the Fujiwhara effect remained to be seen, adding that the bureau could better judge that after Bolevan moves closer.

The effect, named after the Japanese meteorologist who first described it, refers to an interaction of two nearby cyclonic vortices in which they orbit around each other or merge. The effect could prolong the time that Tembin lingers around the nation, bringing torrential rain and more damage.

According to the bureau, Tembin and Bolaven were still about 1,550km apart as of 6pm. In general, the Fujiwhara effect happens when two storms are less than 1,000km from each other.

This post has been edited by Dave K: 22 August 2012 - 08:08

[Dave K]

2012/08/23 06:00UTC,
Current Western North Pacific typhoons :TEMBIN
Center Location 22.7N 123.2E, Movement: WEST 9KM/HR. Minimum Pressure 945 hpa, Maximum Wind Speed 43m/s, Gust 53m/s, Radius of 15m/s 180km, Radius of 25m/s 50km.

Quote

The [Taiwan] bureau estimated that accumulated rainfall in the mountainous areas of Kaohsiung, Pingtung and Yilan could top 1,000mm from yesterday until Saturday. The accumulated rainfall in Hualien could reach 1,100mm during the same period, it added.

While Tembin and another approaching typhoon, Bolaven, were located about 1,500km from each other, there were no signs that they will interact with each other, the bureau said.

However, the bureau did not rule out that the two storms could move closer to each other after tomorrow.

http://www.taipeitim...8/23/2003540958

[Bazmundo]

Tembin is closing in on SErn Taiwan, land-falling in the dark by the looks of it.

Radar ("topography not displayed" is best): http://www.cwb.gov.t...radar/index.htm

Attached thumbnail(s)

• 

[Dave K]

Taiwan appears to have escaped relatively lightly from the passage of Typhoon Tembin, inevitably much wind damage to agricultural areas and extremely heavy rainfall in the SE of the island especially but no casualties.

http://news.yahoo.co...-013210214.html

Rainfall accumulations

[P.K.]

Coming back in for a second landfall in the same area.

WTPQ21 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1214 TEMBIN (1214)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 20.4N 117.2E FAIR
MOVE SE SLOWLY
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 21.5N 120.1E 85NM 70%
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 281800UTC 24.2N 122.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE NE 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 291800UTC 27.5N 122.2E 220NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

[Dave K]

P.K., on 26 August 2012 - 19:59, said:

Coming back in for a second landfall in the same area.

The Fujiwhara effect from Bolaven? That's quite a change in direction compared to earlier predictions.

[P.K.]

This has been forecast for a few days now. They did get fairly close at one point.

Reduced size ( 39 K), click image to get full-sized image ( 179 K).

[Dave K]

Tembin, now TS status, is now passing over South Korea with max gust speeds down to 50 kts.