[Nigel Bolton]

A change in the name of the season, so a new thread.

Interestingly, during early September, many of the runs show a circulation across the United Kingdom with an 'H' in the middle.

N.

[Stuart Dapp]

Nigel Bolton, on 27 August 2012 - 12:42, said:

A change in the name of the season, so a new thread.

Interestingly, during early September, many of the runs show a circulation across the United Kingdom with an 'H' in the middle.

N.

Crikey! Better get my walking boots out then

[Rich T 2]

Good model agreement now on a return of summer just in time for the official start of autumn. GFS 12Z showing the Azores high elongating across southern UK, into mainland Europe, stretching as far east as the Ukraine by next Monday before starting to decay. T850s of 12-13C widely this weekend so maxes of 25C or more look likely in a lot of places, especially the east and southeast.

[Ed.]

Gone a tad hush in here..too many far away tropical TS to chase hehe! to the relatively untrained eye, a predominantly calm rather less disturbed pattern of wx to come with temps nudging slightly above average for some at times - and in any sunshine feeling very pleasant indeed, esp further S and E.Some mainly light rain can't be ruled out in places too - Further ahead, poss FI league.. the first Autumn gales & LP systems are making an appearance, as the jet is no doubt looking to make a comeback, yet again! we better get used to it now..

[Uskys]

very fierce Low near Iceland this week, sub 970mb progged with meto and storm winds radiating to near Scotland. no dry period for the uK it seems with fronts from that system traversing the UK west to east. will High pressure take control over the UK afterwards for a week or two?

[Howard Kirby]

Many of the models do seem to have a nice big fat high flirting with the UK over the next 7-10 days.

[Chris Alder]

Howard Kirby, on 02 September 2012 - 08:44, said:

Many of the models do seem to have a nice big fat high flirting with the UK over the next 7-10 days.

Yes it does look pleasent doesn't it, however as this weekend has shown the HP only has to shift or not build in as strongly as first suggested and a belting weekend or few days become distinctly disappointing.

[Dave W]

Typically im off to Barcelona for a week from Weds! However it'll be a bit warmer there though some hill/mountain showers are likely. .hopefully thundery!

[Ed.]

I'm heading in general direction of a far hotter Balkan region, 30C and above still on the cards but not quite the 40+ which had become the norm a week or so ago..T-storms also a distinct possibility.

Closer to home, no extremes of any sorts which can't be a bad thing tbh - that can of course change at anytime.A kinder spell of wx looking imminent into the foreseeable/reliable time frame.

[Dave K]

It looks like good weather for a latish harvest around the country even if it might disappoint those hoping for 30 °C and endlessly azure skies.

[Ian Williams]

If we run the sequence on the latest GFS showing, from +192 to +300 i believe it shows ex-TS/Hurricane Leslie giving the UK a direct hit <960 mb on the 14th September, a long way off but worth keeping an eye on

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[Dave W]

Yes been showing that type of scenario for a while now but a LONG way off!

[Uskys]

In the shorter term, from late Tuesday through to Monday it looks to be dry for the UK its been a long time here - ... met office have built the HP better at 12z run!

[Uskys]

no posts? ... just a comment on meto's fax then.... they've downgraded the HP somewhat for later in the week on the 12z analysis and a squeeze from the north meaning windy unless you live in Southampton. doh!

[Chris Alder]

The 120hour fax looks pretty good to me, the 564 dam line runs from east/west across E&W something that's probably not happened all summer.

[Uskys]

Chris Alder, on 03 September 2012 - 20:56, said:

The 120hour fax looks pretty good to me, the 564 dam line runs from east/west across E&W something that's probably not happened all summer.

the shorter term >72hrs indicated the downgrade imo , todays 00z fax continues with this and although the warm air is up in wales and the midlands friday I can see it being wet by sunday with hp just a memory.

[Chris Alder]

Uskys, on 04 September 2012 - 09:19, said:

the shorter term >72hrs indicated the downgrade imo , todays 00z fax continues with this and although the warm air is up in wales and the midlands friday I can see it being wet by sunday with hp just a memory.

I think most places in E&W will see a good day Sat & Sun, however cloud will be extending down from the NW by Sunday so not such a great day for Sctoland and NI. But yes defo downgrade for the start of next week.

Hopefully things in reality won't speed up and bring the breakdown during the weekend, that again would be emmensely frustrating following last weekend persisent cloud and drizzle after for so long it looked like being warm and sunny, surely that can't happen two weekends on the trot or will the curse of the weekend strike again?

[John Robert Mellor]

Uskys, on 04 September 2012 - 09:19, said:

the shorter term >72hrs indicated the downgrade imo , todays 00z fax continues with this and although the warm air is up in wales and the midlands friday I can see it being wet by sunday with hp just a memory.

? Fronts across the North UK will be weakening features so only 'real' rain should be concentrated across the far north...and there is no real rain in sight Sunday so whey would you think it would be wet?

[Uskys]

Uskys, on 04 September 2012 - 09:19, said:

the shorter term >72hrs indicated the downgrade imo , todays 00z fax continues with this and although the warm air is up in wales and the midlands friday I can see it being wet by sunday with hp just a memory.

John Robert Mellor, on 04 September 2012 - 10:57, said:

? Fronts across the North UK will be weakening features so only 'real' rain should be concentrated across the far north...and there is no real rain in sight Sunday so whey would you think it would be wet?

just a possible outcome from watching the models... high pressure dominance has been decreased for the last 3 runs by the meto and I can see the possibility it will be replaced by cyclonic flow. (amongst other possibilities of course)

[John Robert Mellor]

Uskys, on 04 September 2012 - 12:09, said:

just a possible outcome from watching the models... high pressure dominance has been decreased for the last 3 runs by the meto and I can see the possibility it will be replaced by cyclonic flow. (amongst other possibilities of course)

HP is dominant feature through to Sunday across the UK, with trough intrusion in far NW through Sunday and likely rest of UK through Monday. Im not sure the HP dominance was ever progged much beyond that. Perhaps, we should't look much beyond the weekend really as you as much as I do Andreas that 5 days is a long time in Weather. Although not really indicated, I wouldn't be surprised to see the HP re-asserting itself, beyond the weekend, particularly across southern and eastern parts.