[Ed.]

Just a thought peeps? whilst our predominantly cruel Summer maybe very gradually coming to a close, much warmer settled and even possibly quite hot conditions are now becoming a distinct possibility.For how long is anyones guess, or will the door suddenly slam? do you perhaps think this is a turning point to make up so to speak and provide the much needed warmth and some drier slots, better late than never...or will LP trundle back in bringing more wet and windies.No doubt model chat shall reveal more lol..this is for more casual chit chat, thoughts and ideas..

At this stage it's anybodies guess, surely

This post has been edited by Ed.: 28 August 2012 - 10:47

[Dave K]

Just a thought but those few of us that have had a long term water deficit followed by a not particularly wet summer ( relatively well above average but not large total per se), "best" could be plentiful rainfall to recharge the aquifers and avoid any problems next year, but please not like Autumn 2000, LOL!

[Ed.]

Appreciate that some or indeed very few haven't been overly affected by the deluges etc., or amounts in general perhaps have tallied up for a 'normalish' Summer - it sure would be a bittersweet ending to the season if we get weeks upon weeks of HP now of all times!
Footnote: or even further down the line during Autumn proper, when it is supposed to be or tradition favours a wet, windy and unsettled UK! that would be ironic in itself :-)

[Pete Roberts]

Going by what happened in 1963 an awful summer finished off by a very wet weekend suddenly morphed into a mild "Golden Autumn" with many spells of fine weather. I nearly said "bank holiday) but of course prior to 1967 the BH was at the start of August. Summer's grey days gave way to sunny September days which began on the Monday we all started school after the holidays.

I make no apology for pattern-matching - I've been doing it for over six decades.

Pete

[Dave K]

Well HP in autumn can just as easily mean frosts and fog as we go into late September/October (depending on location of the HP and where one lives). My guess is that it will be a settled start, warmish but without having the exceptional warm spikes of last year, becoming cool and wet for the second half of the season, very wet and rather stormy November. Probaby rather unexceptional though.

I have no basis in sound meteorology whatsoever for this of course

[summer '85]

Ed., on 28 August 2012 - 10:37, said:

At this stage it's anybodies guess, surely

I don't want to sound blunt but isn't that stating the obvious?

Autumn 1978 was a decent one following the poor summer but autumn 1974 was chilly and wet for the most part after that poor summer.

Autumn 1993 was the coldest fo 40 years and that followed that cool summer.

Autumn 2012 could turn out like 2009 ie a reasonable September and October but a washout November.

Or it could turn out like 1985, a dry September and October followed by a cold wintry November.

Or it could be like.......

[Ed.]

Hehe, just like to push the boundaries that bit further, like i have said in the past - it's not always as good speculating when it's actually happening or as the season unfolds lol.Thanks for those stats, they're always an interesting read and it is always good to compare - Pete has already rightly stated in his earlier post, that pattern watching to some almost becomes second nature?

Chances are it'll be a mixed bag, yes it's pure guesswork and that's all part of the fun! i hope :-)

[Chris Alder]

After what was an awful summer I think we'll see certainly a more settled September, obviously with the models suggesting the first third looks pretty reasonable thats not a tough call to make. What happens after that who knows tbh? Recent Autumns have generally been settled with little in the way of severe Atlantic depressions, so I would tend to learn towards a more robust and dynamic spell of weather in Oct/Nov.

[Dave K]

Answer so far seems to be a resounding NO! September was quite a sunny one for most and settled in the south for the first three weeks but strong winds, frequent rain and LP domination seems well and truly set in now, so unless that's your thing...

[Dave W]

No, no and thrice NO!

[Ed.]

So, it hasen't quite got the 'X' factor then lol..

[Dave K]

Ed., on 06 October 2012 - 09:57, said:

So, it hasen't quite got the 'X' factor then lol..

It might have to follow spring and summer in the walk of shame

[nickw1]

Dave K, on 06 October 2012 - 09:59, said:

It might have to follow spring and summer in the walk of shame

Looks like October is the fourth goddawful month of 2012 following April, June and July.
2012 truly is a terrible year for weather. The sooner it's over the better.

Maybe November and December will save things at the last moment with endless sunny, frosty, anticyclonic conditions and the odd bit of snow, unless that happens then 2012 will definitely be the worst calendar year for weather in my living memory
(back to 1979/1980 or so).

Mind you some of the 60s years look horrendous, I pity anyone who had to live through 1966 or 1968 for example - no wonder so many people were on drugs lol...

[Stuart Dapp]

nickw1, on 09 October 2012 - 09:22, said:

2012 truly is a terrible year for weather. The sooner it's over the better.

My sentiments exactly, but I don't expect any real improvement in weather fortunes in the soggy SW in the first few months of 2013 either (at least not until around mid-May).

[Lightning Hunter]

One of the wettest, and THE coldest start to Autumn on record here (since 1995).

[BUTTERFLY]

Although so far temperatures for September and the first third of October are only a little below average (and not in all places) this could end up as the coolest autumn for quite a few years, perhaps since 1993 or 1994, since we have had a long run of above average autumns including the warmest ever in 2006 I believe.

[Dave K]

BUTTERFLY, on 10 October 2012 - 06:23, said:

Although so far temperatures for September and the first third of October are only a little below average (and not in all places) this could end up as the coolest autumn for quite a few years, perhaps since 1993 or 1994, since we have had a long run of above average autumns including the warmest ever in 2006 I believe.

Yes, a cool zonality by the looks of it - mainly unsettled, wet, windy and temps only average at best.

[Ed.]

..not alot on the horizon to make amends or so it appears? no Indian Summer, heatwaves, even temps above ave temps is an outsider bet, prolonged sun, don't make me larf! ...i therefore consider this thread (pretty much..) closed, de-funct, yada yada, ciao for now.Done and dusted until Autumn 2013, when things can only get better? which won't be all that difficult

[Summertumn1]

Of course it is easy to forget that last autumn was also one of the hottest on record, with the heatwave in early October and consistent warmth for much of that month, followed by what wasn't far off being the warmest November ever. It's true that we haven't had a really cold autumn since 1993, which was an exceptionally cold one (94 had the record breaking mild Nov) and the closest we came was 2010 (all thanks to a very cold November)

[jonathanwebb]

While certainly not comparable to the early October 2011 warmth, it's worth noting that we were in south Devon for a few days last week and had lunch outside in pleasant sunshine on three days out of five.......not bad for October really. Walking the coast paths was muddy at times, though!