AM Period; Slight Risk of Elevated Thundery Showers 00Z-12Z Dorset northward through to NW Wales, and SE UK (also Channel Islands).
PM Period; Slight Risk of Thundery Showers UK & Ireland. Moderate Risk of SB Tstorms NW Ireland, Wales/ NW Midlands through to SW Scotland 12Z-00Z
A rather mixed bag of potential events hence divided into am and pm periods. Realistically there is a general risk of thunder activity any where across the UK and Ireland Mon. Prime risk for severe weather pm period. High pressure moves slowly eastward allowing for marginal though still significant influence of the upper trough to the west. A surface low pressure regime develops slowly through the afternoon across UK with elevated convection turning surface based. My main concern for this outlook is available surface moisture. There would now appear to be less available than earlier predictions. Though it would appear still enough for isolated Tstorms. Upper shear rather marginal but still influential; Whilst only partial separation of updraft to downdraft will likely occur the fact that the storms look to move in a steady transit north suggest that favourable warm inflow can be sustained from the NE sector of any building cell. So in short whilst storms might look rather messy they are likely to adopt a cyclic life span. Cyclic storms can develop tornadoes if the low level shear is in place but this does not look to be the case here ATM. Whilst a small number of funnel clouds are likely along any sea breeze convergence zones I do not see the potential for fully fledge tornado development Prime risk looks to be cg's on a local scale and quite prevalent nearer the stronger CAPE's. In fact lightning can on occasions be more deadly than others. This could well be the case here!The strongest storm activity looks to occur around Herefs, Shrop and Worc counties
Overall confidence is high for potential results but low for locating regions to be affected!
This post has been edited by Tony Gilbert: 21 July 2013 - 14:56